July 15, 2007

Future of Panama - video comment Patrick Dixon, conference speaker

Panama is booming in 2007 - thanks to rapid growth in second homes, retirement communities (Spanish and American), regional banking centres, shipping through the Panama canal, and the free zone (tax free and generating 90% of Panama's exports. Video comment by Patrick Dixon at HSBC Panama event (conference speaker).

Future of Panama Canal - and how it works - video by Patrick Dixon

How ships move throught the spectacular Panama canal, how it is being widened and impact of the Panama canal on the economy of the region. Comment by Patrick Dixon

July 01, 2007

UK house prices? Future of housing market?

Future trends affecting house prices in the UK and why they have remained strong for as long as they have - what next? Video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon

Rising sea levels threat from global warming

Video by Dr Patrick Dixon on threat to Netherlands and Bangladesh from global warming and rise in sea levels.

June 27, 2007

Why planting trees won't save the world from global warming

Planting trees is a hopeless response to global warming - video comment.

Subscribers to this Web diary please note that most blog entries and video comments are being posted to all the other blogs linked to this main one. See links on this blog. Patrick

June 22, 2007

Truth about Politics: they often pretend to disagree - Video

Most politicians in most democratic countries agree on most things. Just look at how rare it is for a new government to undo legislation passed by the previous administration. Despite all the political posturing, the real debates are not about differences in manifesto promises (often overtaken anyway by global events), but about who has the most competent and experienced leadership team. Most energy in politics today is about single issues such as Iraq, genetically modified food, stem cell research or global warming. Politicians will only have a chance of recovering respect if they start keeping to the truth which is that consensus rules and the opposition are on the whole sensible people with decent policies. Video comment.

Future of retailing

Video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon on how retailers could fight back against online discounted sales sites. Shopping centres can deliver product faster into your hands than online – even with overnight delivery. Why in an increasingly fast-changing and impatient world the high street shop will always win for some consumers who need it NOW. Customer behaviour and consumer choice.

June 20, 2007

Future of Outsourcing and Offshoring - is it all over?

Video on outsourcing crisis - 100% wage inflation in some parts of China and India for senior managers. Loss of competitive advantage of outsourcing with previous wage differentials between these nations and America / Europe being eroded rapidly. Where jobs will go next and why. Video comment at Stockholm conference by Dr Patrick Dixon

June 19, 2007

Future of Kazakhstan - economy - by Dr Patrick Dixon

Future Kazakhstan economy

Future of Kazakhstan

Interesting visit – giving a presentation on the investment potential of the country at a conference in Karaganda opened by the Prime Minister. Kazakhstan is a spectacularly vast and beautiful country, with massive resources of oil, gas, coal, copper, uranium and many other minerals. Kazakhstan is the size of Europe, yet most people in Europe cannot place it on a map. Kazakhstan suffered under the former Soviet regime, was host to many Gulag camps, has been affected by industrial and nuclear pollution on a massive scale, is severely short of water (hence death of the Aral sea), and yet life expectancy and incomes fell from already low levels when Communism ended.

The ending of Russian control created high expectations but the reality was half a decade of chaos and uncertainty as reforms gradually worked through and internal markets began to develop. Living standards fell sharply during those years and life was very tough for millions of people.

Rapid development of oil and gas fields in the early 2000s has resulted in huge economic growth, and Kazakhstan is likely to see continued inflation in real estate prices as well as in other sectors. Government income will rise rapidly as new oil and gas fields come on stream through 2008 onwards, and we can expect major investment in large-scale infrastructure as well as in health and education. At the same time, expect major environmental initiatives, some linked to ecotourism, of which one will be renewed regional efforts to allow the Aral Sea to recover.

Kazakhs are returning to the country and birth rates are rising, while significant numbers of Russians continue to leave. The net effect is likely to be population growth of around 0.5m to 1m every two years. There is a feel of optimism and yet there is a long way to go in improving basic health care and social support, especially for the elderly or vulnerable. Kazakhstan is likely to find that oil and gas wealth is a mixed blessing. As energy exports rise, so will the value of the national currency, making other exports more difficult for tens of thousands of small and medium sized businesses on which the wider and more sustainable future of the economy will depend.

As we have seen in many other oil-rich nations, huge energy reserves can create other challenges ranging from national security threats from energy hungry neighbours, to internal threats from groups keen to take power and cream off wealth for themselves. Neither seem a significant issue at present in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan is strategically placed with political stability, good relations with neighbouring nations, carefully balanced diplomacy with both Russia and the US, and greater religious tolerance than some of its neighbours (the country is roughly half Muslim and half Christian).

There are huge business opportunities here for people who are sensitive to history and culture, globalised in outlook and well connected to people who matter.
The visit was interesting for another reason: the AIDS foundation I started in 1988 (ACET) has trained community workers in HIV prevention in Kazakhstan and other countries in the region so it was helpful to meet key people and learn about the spread of HIV and practical steps being taken to save the lives of young people at risk.

June 17, 2007

Complete list of videos of lectures, keynotes, seminars, and video blogs on future trends and major issues in business

Future of phones, computers, consumer choices and lifestyle changes in emerging markets - staged multimedia event for 450 of MTN's global leadership team - South Africa 2007.

Future customer trends, consumers, marketing, products and services - event for 350 clients of Siemens, mostly Chief Technology Offices, or Chief Information Officers, from multinationals.

How the future of America will be dominated by older consumers, lifestyle choices and growth of financial and political power of senior citizens - presentation for national leadership team of AARP (American association for people over the age of 50) - 2005..

Future technology trends and what people really want - personally and in business - seminar for 25 leaders at Dimension Data in Johannesburg with video-linked audiences in three other site - 2007.

The Future of Education - lecture for 100 Head Teachers of US high schools (NAIS). What kind of education do tomorrow's citizens need? How does the way we teach people need to change? What kind of world do we need to prepare students for? - 2006.

Future trends and their impact on investment banking, fund management and related financial services - Credit Suisse seminar - 2006.

Future of Consumers, Technology and Communications - one hour presentation for 600 clients of Toshiba in Sydney. Major shift, new fashions and fads, convergence and divergence and the need to make a difference - 2006.

Future of the European Petrochemical Industry - logistics and supply chain - half hour keynote presentation for the European Petrochemical Association (EPCA). This is an example of a highly customised presentation for a specific audience - 2007.

How to Make Great Things Happen - presentation for 250 government workers organised by the Welsh Parliament (Assembly). Participants from health, education, police, fire services, social services, transport. Keys to effective leadership, change management and improved productivity - 2007.

Take Hold of Your Future - technology and other major trends affecting the future of large cororporations. Event for 2,000 clients of Fujitsu Siemens - 2005.

Futurewise - Six Faces of Global Change and the Future of Banking - keynote lecture to 400 financial intermediaries of UBS, with focus on fund management, financial services and wealth management - 2006.

Future of medicine, biotechnology, health care, the pharmaceutical industry - and related trends - biotech investors conference in Switzerland - 2003.

Future of Logistics, Distribution, Global Transportation and other Trends - client event for IBS - 2005.

Future of digital technology and other global trends - client event for 2000 CIOs and CTOs of Fujitsu Siemens on major trends and their impact on multinational business - not only in technology - 2006

Dr Patrick Dixon chairing conferences and running panel interviews

Google Zeitgeist CEO Summit - 5 minute intro of session on future of entertainment, media, advertising, online communities such as YouTube and perhaps the ultimate consumer experience - space travel with Virgin Galactic

Google Zeitgeist CEO Summit - Chairing session on future of broadcasting and the BBC - guest Mark Thompson, Director General BBC

Google Zeitgeist CEO Summit - Chairing discussion with co-founder of YouTube Chad Hurley - on meteoric rise of YouTube

Google Zeitgeist CEO Summit - Space Tourism and Virgin Galactic - Chairing session with remarkeable video of early flight, discussion and then closing with whole panel of 5 on range of issues relating to entertainment and virtual life

Short video clips on major issues


The truth about global warming

Mobile phone radiation - truth about health scares, cancer and other issues

Future of government, politics and single issue activism - radical

Why most new phones will be sold to people on low incomes in poorest nations

Power of tribalism - in conflicts, communities, corporations

How low cost prevention programmes can stop AIDS in Africa

Impact of low cost computers and phones in Africa and Asia

The scandal of unreliable and bug-ridden technology

Urbanisation, demographics and mobile phones in emerging nations

Convergence and divergence in technology products innovation

How mobile phones are having an impact in places like DR Congo

How to lose 30% of your business in 30 seconds

Impact of SMS and mobile phones on life in Africa

Market research - why consumers can't be trusted to give right answers about future

Market research and consumer emotion - listen to your customers but don't believe what they say

Managing uncertainty - wild cards: low probability, high impact events

Why market research does not work - and future of marketing

Human cloning - who is carrying out human cloning research, how it is being done and why. Why investors are moving away from human cloning and human embryo experiments to invest in adult stem cell technology.

Managing rapid change - secret of change management and leadership

Take hold of your future or the future will take hold of you

Book Patrick Dixon for an event


10 billion computers the size of a grain of sand

Connecting with emotion of customers online

1 billion new consumers - future

Human cloning - part one - who is doing human cloning

Human cloning - part two - why investors don't like cloning

Future of genetic engineering

Future of Ukraine - economy and country

Future of Malaysia Economy

Future of Kazakhstan - economy

Future will be driven by emotion - take hold of your future!

Make It Work! Scandal: technology sold which doesn't work

Motivation, leadership, change management, passion

Mobile phone sales in emerging economies - bottom of pyramid

Why consumers won't wait - impatience online

Can we stop getting old - reverse ageing? New research.

Impact of ageing population in Europe and Russia

Secret of Change Management - by Patrick Dixon

Purpose of fund management - by Patrick Dixon

Fund Management Risks - Potential Crisis - Patrick Dixon

Wild cards - low probability, high impact events

Tribalism - greatest force in world today

Low cost mobile phones in emerging nation / Africa

Why market research gives wrong results - blogging

Mobile phone radiation - health risks - facts

Convergence and Divergence - future technology and consumers

Mobile phone impact on poorest nations

The world is changing faster than you can make decisions

Stopping spread of AIDS in Africa

Truth about global warming and practical answers

Future of Malaysia

June 16, 2007

Future of Ukraine - economy and country - Dr Patrick Dixon

Exciting future for this rapidly growing economy. Watch out however for overheating in the real estate market which has risen by 160% in two years. Video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon

June 14, 2007

Future of Kazakhstan - economy - by Dr Patrick Dixon

Future of Kazakhstan - video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon following government conference on global investment held in Karaganda.

June 13, 2007

Future of Kazakhstan - economy - by Dr Patrick Dixon

Kazakhstan is a fascination, very hospitable and exciting country with huge mineral resources of coal, oil, gas, copper, uranium and energetic, well educated population. Video comment following visit to Karaganda.

June 12, 2007

Future of genetic engineering - by Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon

Inside story on genetic engineering and how the universal language of life is being used by scientists to create new plants, animals and genetic refits for humans. Video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon

June 11, 2007

Human cloning - part one - who is doing human cloning

Who is doing human cloning research and why. Explanation of science behind human cloning and what it means for medical research - or does it? Do we really need human cloning to solve health problems? Reasons for and against human cloning. Video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon

June 10, 2007

Future of Malaysia Economy

Future growth in Malaysia. Most economic growth will come from small companies employing less than 20 people. Expect rapid growth in services, as manufacturing creates wealth in the general population. New markets including Singapore. Video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon

June 09, 2007

Future will be driven by emotion - take hold of your future!

Emotion is more important than technology, gadgets, gizmos or inventions. Emotion is what will drive the future because it dictates how people feel and how they live. That's why market research is unreliable when it comes to future predictions - because people don't know how they will feel in future in response - say - to a terror attack or some new techno advance they never anticipated. Conference speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, author Futurewise for MTN on consumers, fashions, lifestyles, customer behavior, choices, demographics. (more)

June 05, 2007

Chad Hurley at Zeitgeist Europe 2007

Interview of co-founder of YouTube by Dr Patrick Dixon - how did he grow the YouTube pehenomenon to a $1.6bn company in just 15 months. What did it feel like? Lessons for every company wanting to impact the online world.

June 04, 2007

Impact of ageing population in Europe and Russia

Huge consequencies of failure of Europeans to have children - in many nations only 1.3-1.7 children per couple. Expect deficit to be filled with large scale immigration - as is already happening in the UK with a million new entrants in the past three years alone. Video of part of presentation for a financial services company.

June 03, 2007

Future of marketing and media - Dr Patrick Dixon for Google Zeitgeist

Google event - intro to future of online communities and media, why traditional marketing is dead and how brands will be changed by Web 2.0. CEO summit organised by Google. Dr Patrick Dixon chair of session.

June 01, 2007

Space Tourism - video Virgin Galactic and interview

Dr Patrick Dixon interviews Stephen Attenborough about space tourism - short flights costing $200,000 and all seats booked for first couple of years. Watch remarkeable video of early flight. Chairing session at Google Zeitgeist CEO Summit.

May 26, 2007

Connecting with emotion of customers online - Patrick Dixon

Why emotions are so important and why market research sometimes fails to predict how people will feel in future

May 13, 2007

Future of Electronic Publishing

Speaking at conference today organised by Amdocs - which provides software and consulting for directory publishers.

Big questions about long term future of the Yellow Pages industry which has been (and remains) very profitable in many countries. Pressures from:

Movement of many to online search and mobile, geography sensitive information.
Fact that most small businesses in places like America now have own web pages
Dramatic growth of e-Bay and other community trading sites which are brilliant places for people to go to find local products - and maybe services as well in future
Lack of trust in advertising compared to community reviews by previous customers
Possible ban on sending paper directories to homes of people who do not specifically request them
Competition from tens of thousands of small companies who are also offering help with web promotion to small companies

Question: if directories did not exist, would they be a good business to start up?

Possible scenario

•Google Local starts to dominate with help from local partners
•Formal directories decline except for niche markets eg small town, associations where information does not change / not online or specialist business lists
•Huge shakeout where there is more than one paper directory supplier in same area
•EU nations ban delivery of non-requested paper directories
•Year on year fall in revenue for paper directory suppliers
•Mobile interactive marketing takes off – “just in time”
•Directory enquiry services broaden to include direct sales
•50 billion new web pages and indexes created
•E-Bay and other communities create “living” directories
•Every webmaster adds postal code etc to every web page - maybe in a new widely used meta tag at the top of every page
•Web page builders become obsessed with location
•Google then able to improve search - dumps Google Local / and partnership with most directories

The greatest asset that directory companies have is huge numbers of small business clients and large sales teams who have a personal relationship with them, often over years. This presents a great opportunity for selling new kinds of products and services which could be based on web marketing but could also include a range of other things from insurance to office supplies.