Trees cannot solve global warming

Old carbon dioxide needs to be stored underground. Carbon capture technology and carbon sequestration. Carbon offsetting and carbon trading. Balancing carbon footprint. Developed world and emerging economies carbon revolution. Carbon saving attention move to investment in solar, wind, wave energy generation. Nuclear fission and fusion. Lessons from scientific research. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

How should global business reduce global poverty and ...

Example of social impact of AIDS foundation ACET. But business generates economic growth which can also have huge impact on poverty in poorest nations. Value of assets such as property grows. International trade benefit to emerging economies. Skills transfer and skills training. Positive impact of outsourcing in global well-being. Every job lost in America or Europe creates many new jobs directly and indirectly in Asia or Africa. Some of the wealth comes back to developed nations in demand for products and services. Globalisation can bring problems but also many benefits. But non-profit organisations and foundations also have vital role. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Future of the pharmaceutical industry -- conference ...

Generic competition and product recalls. Patent expiry and intellectual property protection. Legal challenges and research scandals. Biogenerics and large molecule therapeutics. Cellular mechanisms of disease. Unmet needs. Government purchasing policies and insurance cover. Online pharmacy price pressures. Search for new blockbusters. Chronic disease and orphan therapies. Rheumatoid and asthma. Antibiotics and multiple resistance problems. Search for powerful antiviral therapy. Future health funding and ageing populations. Contrast with emerging nations. Treatment access and justice issues. Pharmacogenomics and gene prophecy. Ethical issues. HIV and AIDS.

Retail revolution in India

150,000 chain stores in 15 years with massive growth and consolidation of mom and pop small retail outlets. Specialisation, department stores, new markets, growth of middle class, designer products, luxury goods and services, competitors to wal-mart and other supermarket chains. Emerging markets and new economies, Asia, China, India and Africa. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon

Migration, immigration and ageing crisis in Europe

Falling fertility rates. Economic impact of ageing. Social policy impact on government. Pensions crisis. Older workers and rising retirement age. Migration and immigration policy -- UK and Poland, and other EU new countries. Remittances impact on emerging economies. Rising unemployment. Political tensions and ethnic tensions. Racial prejudice. Falling labour costs. Economic migrants. Pressure on public services. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Future of Kazakhstan - economy - by Dr Patrick Dixon

Future Kazakhstan economy

Future of Kazakhstan

Interesting visit – giving a presentation on the investment potential of the country at a conference in Karaganda opened by the Prime Minister. Kazakhstan is a spectacularly vast and beautiful country, with massive resources of oil, gas, coal, copper, uranium and many other minerals. Kazakhstan is the size of Europe, yet most people in Europe cannot place it on a map. Kazakhstan suffered under the former Soviet regime, was host to many Gulag camps, has been affected by industrial and nuclear pollution on a massive scale, is severely short of water (hence death of the Aral sea), and yet life expectancy and incomes fell from already low levels when Communism ended.

The ending of Russian control created high expectations but the reality was half a decade of chaos and uncertainty as reforms gradually worked through and internal markets began to develop. Living standards fell sharply during those years and life was very tough for millions of people.

Rapid development of oil and gas fields in the early 2000s has resulted in huge economic growth, and Kazakhstan is likely to see continued inflation in real estate prices as well as in other sectors. Government income will rise rapidly as new oil and gas fields come on stream through 2008 onwards, and we can expect major investment in large-scale infrastructure as well as in health and education. At the same time, expect major environmental initiatives, some linked to ecotourism, of which one will be renewed regional efforts to allow the Aral Sea to recover.

Kazakhs are returning to the country and birth rates are rising, while significant numbers of Russians continue to leave. The net effect is likely to be population growth of around 0.5m to 1m every two years. There is a feel of optimism and yet there is a long way to go in improving basic health care and social support, especially for the elderly or vulnerable. Kazakhstan is likely to find that oil and gas wealth is a mixed blessing. As energy exports rise, so will the value of the national currency, making other exports more difficult for tens of thousands of small and medium sized businesses on which the wider and more sustainable future of the economy will depend.

As we have seen in many other oil-rich nations, huge energy reserves can create other challenges ranging from national security threats from energy hungry neighbours, to internal threats from groups keen to take power and cream off wealth for themselves. Neither seem a significant issue at present in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan is strategically placed with political stability, good relations with neighbouring nations, carefully balanced diplomacy with both Russia and the US, and greater religious tolerance than some of its neighbours (the country is roughly half Muslim and half Christian).

There are huge business opportunities here for people who are sensitive to history and culture, globalised in outlook and well connected to people who matter.
The visit was interesting for another reason: the AIDS foundation I started in 1988 (ACET) has trained community workers in HIV prevention in Kazakhstan and other countries in the region so it was helpful to meet key people and learn about the spread of HIV and practical steps being taken to save the lives of young people at risk.

Future of Ukraine - economy and country - Dr Patrick Dixon

Exciting future for this rapidly growing economy. Watch out however for overheating in the real estate market which has risen by 160% in two years. Video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon

Future of Kazakhstan - economy - by Dr Patrick Dixon

Kazakhstan is a fascination, very hospitable and exciting country with huge mineral resources of coal, oil, gas, copper, uranium and energetic, well educated population. Video comment following visit to Karaganda.

Future of Malaysia Economy

Future growth in Malaysia. Most economic growth will come from small companies employing less than 20 people. Expect rapid growth in services, as manufacturing creates wealth in the general population. New markets including Singapore. Video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon

How sustainable is our future?

Talked today to 50 executives at Impact conference today on Corporate and Social Responsibility / sustainable enterprise.  Huge shift taking place inside the largest corporations about these issues and a growing recognition that they are important to consumers, shareholders and staff.  Here are some interesting statistics:

 

•          Only 10% of big ocean fish remain

•          Most global fishing is under threat

•          25% of all mammals face extinction (by 2035 say UN)

•          1 in 8 plant species face extinction

•          CO2 levels are at their highest for a million years

•          Even if all carbon emissions stop, sea levels will go on rising for 1000 years

•          Stabilising CO2 at 450ppm will cost 1% of gross world product (level is 370 parts per million today)

•          Continuing without change could cost 10% of gross world product

•          In 1990 emerging nations produced 39% of the world’s carbon dioxide - by 2010 it will be 55%

 

See the presentation on http://www.globalchange.com/ppt4/sustain

 

 

 

China onward march to become world's 6th largest economy

China raised its estimate of output this week by a sixth. The new estimate is based on a nationwide census which means China is now above Italy in sixth place in the world economic rankings of 2004 output, measured in dollars at market exchange rates.

Based on 2005 exchange rate movements and relative growth rates, economists calculate that China has now risen to fourth place, ahead of France and Britain, but behind the US, Japan and Germany.

The revision reflects better information on the services sector and on private firms, unearthed during a survey using 13 million people - one in every 100 Chinese.

Villagers blamed for fatal clash in China - Asia - Pacific - International Herald Tribune

News of security forces firing on villagers in China - reported widely. International Herald Tribune reports today from Chinese sources that there have been amaybe round 70,000 protests in China over the last year (but remember there are 1.2 billion people - so the equivalent in the UK would be around 3,000 incidents, still a significant number but nothing like as dramatic). Almost all these protests were resolved peacefully, but in this case things appear to have got out of hand with differing accounts of what happened. Villagers fired off explosive devices - fireworks - which perhaps were mistaken for more serious weaponry. But having said that, firework rockets set off in the direction of armed forces must be considered to be a highly provocative act.

News report from International Herald Tribune is below:

Five days after a fatal assault by security forces put down a demonstration in a village near Hong Kong, the Chinese authorities began Sunday to consolidate an official version of the events, blaming villagers for the violence, but also punishing at least one local commander.

The delayed response by the Chinese government appeared, at least in part, to be part of a carefully measured public relations effort intended to defuse public outrage over the deaths of 20 or more residents of the hamlet, according to villagers' accounts, as well as upholding Beijing's own vision of public order and the "rule of law."

In the first widely circulated account the incident, which occurred in the village of Dongzhou, in southern Guangdong Province, the Xinhua press agency Web site cited the information office of the nearby city of Shanwei, saying that a "chaotic mob" had begun throwing explosives at the police Tuesday night, forcing the police to "open fire in alarm." The report said that three villagers were killed and eight others were injured.

The Chinese news reports said that 170 villagers, led by a few instigators, attacked a local wind power plant as part of their protest against another planned development there, a coal-fired power plant, using knives, blasting caps and Molotov cocktails.

On Sunday, as detailed accounts of the incident given by villagers were being reported in the foreign news media and commented upon in Chinese-language Web sites, the authorities announced the arrest of a local commander who was in charge during the incident. Without naming him, they said he had mishandled the situation under "extremely urgent circumstances."

The Xinhua report did not make clear whether there had been one or more arrests of officers in charge. Villagers interviewed Sunday said they had been told of two arrests.

The official account of the incident, as well as the death toll being reported in the mainland Chinese media, remain at odds with largely concordant accounts of the villagers, dozens of whom have been interviewed since Friday.

According to these accounts, three bodies were taken to a local clinic after the showdown between the protesters and security forces, and another to a hospital in Shanwei, a city about 25 kilometers, or 15 miles, to the north of Dongzhou, which has jurisdiction over the village.

In telephone interviews with villagers on Saturday and Sunday, witnesses spoke repeatedly of an additional seven or eight bodies seen by a roadside near the scene of the violence. Others accounts, given by numerous villagers, spoke of 13 or so bodies floating in the sea after the security forces used automatic weapons on the protesters. The villagers said they had set off fireworks and exploded blasting caps from a distance of more than 90 paces from the massed police and paramilitary forces. Villagers also repeatedly spoke of injured people being approached by security forces and fatally shot at close range.

"There were seven or eight bodies, killed by the spray of gunfire, that fell into a ditch," said one villager, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "The next day, going up along the ditch deep into the grass bushes, villagers found up to 10 bodies. Those inside the ditch were taken away and cremated immediately. I saw it while hiding in the grass bush on the mountain. Immediately I felt like crying, it was such a cruel scene."

The villager's account dovetails with that of several other villagers who spoke of bodies by the roadside near a village crossroads. Others spoke of the effort by soldiers to dispose of corpses, keeping villagers at a distance while they burned some of them, and loading others into a minibus, which some villagers said, then took the bodies to a local crematorium for disposal.

Dongzhou residents also said that at least 40 villagers are still unaccounted for, and it is not known whether the missing were killed, arrested or remain in hiding.

If accurate, these accounts suggest a frenzied effort by authorities to maintain an official death toll of about three people, thereby minimizing the importance of the event, which constitutes the greatest known use of force by the Chinese security forces against ordinary citizens since the Tiananmen massacre in Beijing, in 1989.

Villagers said that with security agents still circulating in large numbers, and going from door to door to interrogate residents, some families that had recovered the corpses of their relatives had buried them hastily, and in secret, to avoid their confiscation.

Others said that the police had offered money to those who would surrender their corpses, as well as money for casing from ammunition recovered from the scene. Villagers said that some people had sold their casings, while others had kept them as evidence of the use of force.

The effort to manage public information about the incident was also apparent on Saturday in Shanwei, where villagers said some of the wounded and dead were taken by the police.

At one hospital, visited by a foreign journalist after 11 p.m., people said injured residents from Dongzhou were being cared for in isolation on a third floor ward. On the third floor, a wing of the hospital was fenced off and guarded by the police.


On Saturday night, roads out of Shanwei for a distance of more than 160 kilometers had police checkpoints that taxi drivers said had been created to search for "fugitives" from Dongzhou.

On Sunday, villagers contacted by telephone claimed that people who visited their hospitalized relatives in Shanwei had been detained.

The deadly confrontation Tuesday was the culmination of months of tension over the construction of a coal-fired power plant at Dongzhou. Villagers said they had not been adequately compensated for the use of their land ? less than $3 per family, according to one account - and feared pollution from the plant would destroy their livelihood as fishermen. The construction plans called for a bay beside the village to be reclaimed with landfill.

"Shanwei's deputy party secretary said that he

wanted to trample Dongzhou into a flat land," said a village resident who gave her name as Jiang.

On Saturday, even as they continued their search of the village and questioning of residents, the authorities said they had no choice but to open fire.

"I'm a good friend of Dongzhou people," one party official said by megaphone as he toured the village. "Nobody wants to see anything like what happened here on the night of Dec. 6, but the people of this village are too barbaric. We were forced to open fire."

From the start, villagers have disputed accounts that said they had attacked the authorities first with explosives.

"We didn't use explosives, because we were too far away," said one villager, a 16-year-old boy who was in the midst of the crowd when the violence erupted. "Someone may have tried, but there's no way we could have reached them. These were homemade weapons, and when they started shooting, we didn't have a chance."

SHENZHEN, China Five days after a fatal assault by security forces put down a demonstration in a village near Hong Kong, the Chinese authorities began Sunday to consolidate an official version of the events, blaming villagers for the violence, but also punishing at least one local commander.

The delayed response by the Chinese government appeared, at least in part, to be part of a carefully measured public relations effort intended to defuse public outrage over the deaths of 20 or more residents of the hamlet, according to villagers' accounts, as well as upholding Beijing's own vision of public order and the "rule of law."

In the first widely circulated account the incident, which occurred in the village of Dongzhou, in southern Guangdong Province, the Xinhua press agency Web site cited the information office of the nearby city of Shanwei, saying that a "chaotic mob" had begun throwing explosives at the police Tuesday night, forcing the police to "open fire in alarm." The report said that three villagers were killed and eight others were injured.

The Chinese news reports said that 170 villagers, led by a few instigators, attacked a local wind power plant as part of their protest against another planned development there, a coal-fired power plant, using knives, blasting caps and Molotov cocktails.

On Sunday, as detailed accounts of the incident given by villagers were being reported in the foreign news media and commented upon in Chinese-language Web sites, the authorities announced the arrest of a local commander who was in charge during the incident. Without naming him, they said he had mishandled the situation under "extremely urgent circumstances."

The Xinhua report did not make clear whether there had been one or more arrests of officers in charge. Villagers interviewed Sunday said they had been told of two arrests.

The official account of the incident, as well as the death toll being reported in the mainland Chinese media, remain at odds with largely concordant accounts of the villagers, dozens of whom have been interviewed since Friday.

According to these accounts, three bodies were taken to a local clinic after the showdown between the protesters and security forces, and another to a hospital in Shanwei, a city about 25 kilometers, or 15 miles, to the north of Dongzhou, which has jurisdiction over the village.

In telephone interviews with villagers on Saturday and Sunday, witnesses spoke repeatedly of an additional seven or eight bodies seen by a roadside near the scene of the violence. Others accounts, given by numerous villagers, spoke of 13 or so bodies floating in the sea after the security forces used automatic weapons on the protesters. The villagers said they had set off fireworks and exploded blasting caps from a distance of more than 90 paces from the massed police and paramilitary forces. Villagers also repeatedly spoke of injured people being approached by security forces and fatally shot at close range.

"There were seven or eight bodies, killed by the spray of gunfire, that fell into a ditch," said one villager, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "The next day, going up along the ditch deep into the grass bushes, villagers found up to 10 bodies. Those inside the ditch were taken away and cremated immediately. I saw it while hiding in the grass bush on the mountain. Immediately I felt like crying, it was such a cruel scene."

The villager's account dovetails with that of several other villagers who spoke of bodies by the roadside near a village crossroads. Others spoke of the effort by soldiers to dispose of corpses, keeping villagers at a distance while they burned some of them, and loading others into a minibus, which some villagers said, then took the bodies to a local crematorium for disposal.

Dongzhou residents also said that at least 40 villagers are still unaccounted for, and it is not known whether the missing were killed, arrested or remain in hiding.

If accurate, these accounts suggest a frenzied effort by authorities to maintain an official death toll of about three people, thereby minimizing the importance of the event, which constitutes the greatest known use of force by the Chinese security forces against ordinary citizens since the Tiananmen massacre in Beijing, in 1989.

Villagers said that with security agents still circulating in large numbers, and going from door to door to interrogate residents, some families that had recovered the corpses of their relatives had buried them hastily, and in secret, to avoid their confiscation.

Others said that the police had offered money to those who would surrender their corpses, as well as money for casing from ammunition recovered from the scene. Villagers said that some people had sold their casings, while others had kept them as evidence of the use of force.

The effort to manage public information about the incident was also apparent on Saturday in Shanwei, where villagers said some of the wounded and dead were taken by the police.

At one hospital, visited by a foreign journalist after 11 p.m., people said injured residents from Dongzhou were being cared for in isolation on a third floor ward. On the third floor, a wing of the hospital was fenced off and guarded by the police.


On Saturday night, roads out of Shanwei for a distance of more than 160 kilometers had police checkpoints that taxi drivers said had been created to search for "fugitives" from Dongzhou.

On Sunday, villagers contacted by telephone claimed that people who visited their hospitalized relatives in Shanwei had been detained.

The deadly confrontation Tuesday was the culmination of months of tension over the construction of a coal-fired power plant at Dongzhou. Villagers said they had not been adequately compensated for the use of their land ? less than $3 per family, according to one account - and feared pollution from the plant would destroy their livelihood as fishermen. The construction plans called for a bay beside the village to be reclaimed with landfill.

"Shanwei's deputy party secretary said that he

wanted to trample Dongzhou into a flat land," said a village resident who gave her name as Jiang.

On Saturday, even as they continued their search of the village and questioning of residents, the authorities said they had no choice but to open fire.

"I'm a good friend of Dongzhou people," one party official said by megaphone as he toured the village. "Nobody wants to see anything like what happened here on the night of Dec. 6, but the people of this village are too barbaric. We were forced to open fire."

From the start, villagers have disputed accounts that said they had attacked the authorities first with explosives.

"We didn't use explosives, because we were too far away," said one villager, a 16-year-old boy who was in the midst of the crowd when the violence erupted. "Someone may have tried, but there's no way we could have reached them. These were homemade weapons, and when they started shooting, we didn't have a chance."

SHENZHEN, China Five days after a fatal assault by security forces put down a demonstration in a village near Hong Kong, the Chinese authorities began Sunday to consolidate an official version of the events, blaming villagers for the violence, but also punishing at least one local commander.

The delayed response by the Chinese government appeared, at least in part, to be part of a carefully measured public relations effort intended to defuse public outrage over the deaths of 20 or more residents of the hamlet, according to villagers' accounts, as well as upholding Beijing's own vision of public order and the "rule of law."

In the first widely circulated account the incident, which occurred in the village of Dongzhou, in southern Guangdong Province, the Xinhua press agency Web site cited the information office of the nearby city of Shanwei, saying that a "chaotic mob" had begun throwing explosives at the police Tuesday night, forcing the police to "open fire in alarm." The report said that three villagers were killed and eight others were injured.

The Chinese news reports said that 170 villagers, led by a few instigators, attacked a local wind power plant as part of their protest against another planned development there, a coal-fired power plant, using knives, blasting caps and Molotov cocktails.

On Sunday, as detailed accounts of the incident given by villagers were being reported in the foreign news media and commented upon in Chinese-language Web sites, the authorities announced the arrest of a local commander who was in charge during the incident. Without naming him, they said he had mishandled the situation under "extremely urgent circumstances."

The Xinhua report did not make clear whether there had been one or more arrests of officers in charge. Villagers interviewed Sunday said they had been told of two arrests.

The official account of the incident, as well as the death toll being reported in the mainland Chinese media, remain at odds with largely concordant