Leadership in Global Crisis - Thriving on Chaos

Management is about following systems and processes and proceedures. Leadership is about changing them to achieve greater impact.

In a crisis, many weak leaders abdicate responsibility and behave like managers. Keeping their heads down, doing the minimum to stay out of trouble and blaming those above them for lack of direction, guidance and resources. Trouble is that crisis demands decisive, courageous leadership.

One of the first things that is needed in a crisis is to throw out or suspend beaurocratic management tools that may actually kill the organisation if religiously followed. You just don't have time for all that detail when big picture decisions are needed as a matter of great urgency eg a sweeping cut of 25% of the labour force.

It is absolutely vital to encourage each executive to rise above the chaos, keep engaged with the big picture, communicate closely with those above and below, make clear decisions in a transparent way with more regular meetings etc.

For more on practical steps to lead out of crisis back into growth see my article written yesterday on this: Article on main site

Green Roofs video - save energy - global warming action - ...

Data from Chicago, Tokyo, California, New York, Australia, Toronto, Germany, Reduction of roof temperature, city climate, heat island reduction, cooling savings, environmental. High rise blocks with ventilation costs. Retrofitting. Open living spaces, carbon-neutral buildings with natural light, renewable power generation. Wind turbines on roofs and solar cells. Payback period of renewable energy generation. Falling solar cell costs. Solar cell demand in Germany. Government subsidies, generous unit payments for home generation electricity. Innovation and new technology. Kwhr. Distortion of energy markets. Economies of scale. Cost per unit falling. Economy, global warming, energy conservation and real estate industry. Environment, environmental change, climate change. Risks in real estate development. Operational and management risks and role of a Futurist. What is a Futurist? Identifying new opportunities in buildings control, environmental regulation. Keeping pace with change in real estate planning and corporate real estate demands. Impact on corporate real estate of mergers and acquisitions. How world getting faster, client demands growing faster. How clients behave illogically in longer term real estate planning. Buildings controls, heating and cooling, retrofitting high rise, office blocks and factories. Building regulations and government action. Longer term real estate planning. Market research limitations and customer expectations, client demands. Architects and buildings design, living space, partitions, ventilation systems, balancing and rebalancing air conditioning. ARBS. Business management video by Dr Patrick Dixon, conference keynote speaker lecture, author of Futurewise and Building a Better Business. Global warming impact from offices and commercial buildings, skyscrapers, tower blocks and corporate real estate. Energy efficiency and energy consumption of commercial buildings and office blocks. Balancing air conditioning systems with better building control systems (integrated temperature monitoring) can save over 30% of energy costs each year. Johnson Controls and other companies provide specialist technical advice on heat loss reduction and air conditioning management systems. Issues of ventilation, fresh air, "tight" buildings, carbon dioxide levels, heat exchangers and air ducting. Electricity use and power generation on buildings. Green roofs, open spaces, shade, natural light. Impact of global warming and CO2 reduction on building design, architecture, building regulations and government standards. Special tax relief and concessions, reductions in stamp duty for energy compliant 5* and 6* commercial properties. Activist campaigns to reduce carbon emissions. Carbon trading and offsets. Energy in construction and demolition as proportion of life-time energy use. Future of corporate real estate and corporate real estate management companies. Outsourcing buildings management.
Energy saving, corporate, real estate, property, cost, management, electricity, power, consumption, air conditioning, buildings controls, heat, cooling, light, air circulation, warming, carbon dioxide, gas emissions, reduction, green roofs

Economic growth former Soviet Bloc / CIS nations

Huge catchup in big cities with massive infrastructure projects. Huge economic opportunities in former soviet bloc countries outside the largest cities in regional development. Huge economic growth in places like Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan. Expect the same in places like Belarus. Business growth and multinational investment. Foreign direct investment. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

UK joining Euro -- less likely after sub-prime crisis

Impact of subprime crisis on Euro entry date by Britain. Interest rate control Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England. Sovereignty and national autonomy to manage economy. Tightening and loosening of monetary policy in response to inflation of commodities, retail price index and house market indicators. Eurozone control of economic policy. Government freedom in times of financial crisis and uncertainty, managing risk. Predictions of date of Eurozone entry and Eurozone expansion. Video by keynote conference speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist and author of 12 books on global trends. Euro, sterling, currency, inflation, central bank, bank, England, interest, rates, control, economy, growth, recession, economic.

Strong dollar or weak dollar -- emotional issue for US

Bob McTeer (formerly part of Federal Reserve Board) has talked about possibility of a weaker dollar and why important in stimulating growth. Had a negative reaction from some of American public. Trade imbalance, competitiveness, exports growth, balance of payments. Behaviour of Sovereign Wealth Funds. Switch from Dollars to Euros. Foreign direct investment. Inward capital flows. Crash, depression, recession. Why do people blame Alan Greenspan for the sub-prime crisis? He lead the Federal Reserve Board during the dot-com crash, 9/11 and following years when interest rates in the US fell as low as 1% and America came close to deflation. These low interest years are now blamed for the housing boom, the flood of bad loans and the sub-prime crisis. But is this fair criticism of past economic events in America, with money supply issues, rising unemployment, falling or static economic output in early 2002? Video by keynote conference speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist and author of 12 books on global trends. Euro, sterling, currency, inflation, central bank, bank, England, interest, rates, control, economy, growth, recession, economic.

Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve, America, American, output, unemployment, 9/11, dotcom, dot-com, bubble, housing, house, price, crash, burst, falling, Euro, sterling, currency, inflation, central bank, bank, England, interest, rates, control, economy, growth, recession, economic

UK joining Euro -- less likely after sub-prime crisis

Impact of subprime crisis on Euro entry date by Britain. Interest rate control Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England. Sovereignty and national autonomy to manage economy. Tigthening and loosening of monetary policy in response to inflation of commodities, retail price index and house market indicators. Eurozone control of economic policy. Government freedom in times of financial crisis and uncertainty, managing risk. Predictions of date of Eurozone entry and Eurozone expansion. Video by keynote conference speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist and author of 12 books on global trends. Euro, sterling, currency, inflation, central bank, bank, England, interest, rates, control, economy, growth, recession, economic.

Limits to economic growth? Sustainability?

1 billion new consumers. Can economic growth continue indefinitely? What is the limit to resources? Limits on carbon, oil, gas, coal reservers. Potential impact of nuclear fusion technology. Commodities: aluminium, copper, steel, precious metals, water, farming land and food supplies, gold. Real challenges for future generations. Many problems are solveable if we can produce unlimited clean energy at relatively low cost with new technologies. Why meat production is so wasteful of resources. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

How should global business reduce global poverty and ...

Example of social impact of AIDS foundation ACET. But business generates economic growth which can also have huge impact on poverty in poorest nations. Value of assets such as property grows. International trade benefit to emerging economies. Skills transfer and skills training. Positive impact of outsourcing in global well-being. Every job lost in America or Europe creates many new jobs directly and indirectly in Asia or Africa. Some of the wealth comes back to developed nations in demand for products and services. Globalisation can bring problems but also many benefits. But non-profit organisations and foundations also have vital role. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Future of Kazakhstan - economy - by Dr Patrick Dixon

Future Kazakhstan economy

Future of Ukraine - economy and country - Dr Patrick Dixon

Exciting future for this rapidly growing economy. Watch out however for overheating in the real estate market which has risen by 160% in two years. Video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon

Future of Kazakhstan - economy - by Dr Patrick Dixon

Kazakhstan is a fascination, very hospitable and exciting country with huge mineral resources of coal, oil, gas, copper, uranium and energetic, well educated population. Video comment following visit to Karaganda.

Future of Malaysia Economy

Future growth in Malaysia. Most economic growth will come from small companies employing less than 20 people. Expect rapid growth in services, as manufacturing creates wealth in the general population. New markets including Singapore. Video comment by Dr Patrick Dixon

Analysts tip oil will push beyond current record - Business - Business

Analysts tip oil will push beyond current record - Business - Business

Some time ago many people predicted that global economic growth would slow significantly if oil prices rose as high as $50 to $60 - and yet little has happened.

Now some are warning of dire consequencies if the oil price were to rise to $100 a barrel.

The fact is that when we allow for inflation, oil is still cheaper than it was at the height of the oil crisis in the 1970s - 30 years ago.

The oil price per barrel would need to be around $90 to equal the real cost then, but other things have changed. In the 1970s many nations had far higher rates of inflation. Today, globalisation and the digital age have resulted in falling prices across a wide range of goods, and have also reduced the costs of many services like banking.

It could be argued that recent oil prices as low as $15 a barrel were highly undesirable for the sustainable future of the earth, encouraging energy waste and making it impossible to develop profitable alternative energy sources.

From that point of view we should welcome higher oil prices, which are already helping stimulate huge new investment into solar, wind, tide, hydroelectric and other generation methods, while also encouraging fresh efforts in energy conservation.

Higher oil prices suck vast amounts of cash out of oil-poor countries into the hands of oil producers, and this is already finding its way quite rapidly back into other economies. Just look for example at the amount of Middle East wealth that is flowing into the real estate markets in Europe, particularly the UK.

There are a large number of new business opportunities that arise from these wealth movements, and of course from energy conservation / alternative power generation.

China onward march to become world's 6th largest economy

China raised its estimate of output this week by a sixth. The new estimate is based on a nationwide census which means China is now above Italy in sixth place in the world economic rankings of 2004 output, measured in dollars at market exchange rates.

Based on 2005 exchange rate movements and relative growth rates, economists calculate that China has now risen to fourth place, ahead of France and Britain, but behind the US, Japan and Germany.

The revision reflects better information on the services sector and on private firms, unearthed during a survey using 13 million people - one in every 100 Chinese.

The Future of China

The future of China: chinese economic growth, statistics, graphs and tables, demography, social trends, outsourcing, exports and other useful data - presentation slides

China aviation industry growing fast

China signed a framework document today with Airbus for 150 mid-range planes worth nearly 10 billion dollars during a visit rance by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. The contract, signed by Airbus chief executive Gustav Humbert and the president of the China Aviation Supplies Import and Export Group, Li Hai, covers aircraft from Airbus's A320 family of single-aisle planes, which typically seat up to 185 passengers. The A320 family of single-aisle jets comprises four aircraft capable of seating 107 to 185 passengers.

This is just a small demonstation of the massive expansion that we can expect in the Chinese aviation industry.

Outsourcing impact on business, jobs and the economy

Outsourcing impact on business, jobs and the economy

The truth about the speed, scale and unstoppable momentum of outsourcing. What will be the net impact on the American and European economies? How should company executives and union leaders respond? Can or should the process be reversed? Advantages and disadvantages of outsourcing?

Outsourcing is very controversial and affects every part of business from manufacturing through to design, software development, financial control, logistics management, customer support and sales. Outsourcing has been praised as cost-effective, efficient, productive and strategic - but also condemned as evil, money-grabbing, destructive, ruthless, exploiting the poor.

Outsourcing can generate weeks of hostile media coverage, widespread protests and industrial action. The issue is so sensitive that decisions are usually taken behind closed doors at the most senior levels in the organisation, and only announced after much careful research into how the proposals are likely to be received.

If handled badly, outsourcing can damage corporate image, weaken a brand, unsettle customers, and result in lower quality of products and services. But when handled well, the results can be good enough to save a failing corporation.

You have to show why outsourcing is right

(extract from Building a Better Business - book - take the online $20,000 Challenge - relevant to outsourcing, change management, leadership, marketing and motivation)

If you want to save money fast and take everyone with you, you have to convince those involved that the world will be a better place as a result. Take the high moral ground.

A good example of this has been tensions over relocating call-centres and software support from countries like the UK and the US to India . More than 230,000 jobs are bring lost each year in America as a result of outsourcing - but many economists believe that a similar number of new jobs are being created at the same time (see below).

Union members have protested that jobs are being destroyed in an immoral way, not only because communities are hit back home, but also because they argue the new jobs created in other countries pay very little and exploit the poor. They have often driven vigorous campaigns at work and in the media, designed to block the process.

This has happened because many of the corporations concerned have failed to tell a good news story in a convincing way, to explain why outsourcing will result in a better future in a broad sense � not just for shareholders.

So what is the good news story? First you have to tell the bad news, and prepare the ground for how you are going to save the day. Corporations may differ, but when it comes to outsourcing to a developing country, the �better world� promise is nearly always identical.

BAD NEWS
We need to take urgent action to reduce costs

If we don't run our business efficiently, everyone could lose their jobs

People who have entrusted their life-savings to us (mainly pensioners), will also lose their money

Customers will feel exploited by our high prices, and will go elsewhere

GOOD NEWS
We can easily save costs, save the company, save most people's jobs, keep prices down and offer great service � by relocating some jobs to other, less expensive parts of the world

Highly skilled people are available in some of the poorest nations

Their daily costs of living are lower, and we can pay them less while still enabling them to enjoy a good standard of living � see table

People in these countries really do need our support and investment

Every job we create in these countries can create many others as new money flows into the national economy, and is spent on local goods and services

By investing in these countries, we are also helping them develop into new markets for our own business, which is good for everyone

We are also doing our part to help tackle the greatest moral challenge of our time, which is the growing gap between richest and poorest nations, helping build international peace, prosperity and security for a better future

And so the message continues: In summary, if we continue as we are, the result will be disaster for everyone � customers, workers and the community. If we outsource, the future will be better for all, apart from a few who we deeply regret will lose their jobs for the sake of those who remain. We are deeply indebted to them for the contribution they have made and are committed to their future. We will do all we can to help them find employment elsewhere.

It matters how outsourcing is done

It is harder to argue for outsourcing if the corporation is making record profits, is not facing significant competitor pressures, and is making people redundant against their will.

On the other hand, few labor organisations consistently oppose outsourcing if the corporation is vulnerable, competitor pressures are severe, other companies have already led the way, and if existing workers are being offered voluntary redundancy on reasonably generous terms as well as retraining. And of course, people also want to see assurances that new workers in emerging countries will get an appropriate, fair wage and safe working conditions.

Facts about Outsourcing

Some say that it is wrogn to pay people in India less than the same job would justify in somewhere like the US. However we need to compare not just salaries, but what those salary levels will actually buy in different countries. An IT professional in India may be far better off in terms of lifestyle, even though paid only a third of the US salary. It all depends on exchange rates. The pressures will continue to grow, not just for cost saving, but also for quality, service and speed.

* India produces more than 870,000 new IT graduates a year and produces more than a million engineering graduates a year, plus 16 million others with engineering diplomas. India is leading the way in new areas of pharmaceuticals, biotech, electrical and mechanical engineering. China also.

* One in 5 UK workers at risk from outsourcing have difficulties reading and writing. The UK struggles to turn out just 8,000 IT graduates a year.

* Most outsourcing is by large companies, yet small comopanies provide most jobs in America and Europe, and most of the economic growth. Big companies create headlines but the greatest impact is elsewhere and almost invisible. The UK has 3.3 million companies. If each one takes on just one more person on average, the result would be more than 3 million new jobs, and that is what has happened in the last few years, with unemployment at very low levels despite several million people added to the labour force. Yet 6,000 redundancies at a factory is mistakenly seen as a national crisis.

* Each outsourced job in India can generate work for more than 20 other people as the money flows around the national economy, usually at a far faster rate than in countries like the US.

* When a product is manufactured in China instead of the US or Europe, only a small part of the total retail price lands up in that country. Most is taken as before by the retailer, wholesaler, distribution system, research, design and development teams and company owners as profit. So the impact is less than you might expect.

* Research shows that some of the new economic activity generated in developing countries by oursourcing will generate new demand for goods and services in the country where the jobs have moved from (eg America).

* Outsourcing saves money for corporations which means lower costs for consumers, and higher dividends for pensioners who own 75% of US and UK wealth - that means more money to spend on other things such as local services (meals out, beauty treatments, gardening, decorating etc) and that produces new jobs.

* Outsourcing has meant for example that you can buy a DVD player for less than $100. It is one reason why retail costs of products has halved in many sectors over the last 20 years, allowing for inflation.

* Future economic growth depends on new generations of creative, dynamic entrepreneurs, with good access to venture capital, who will drive national economies through transition.

Venture Capital - Digital technology, biotech and other growth sectors - event for Vaekstfonden by Dr Patrick Dixon

Venture Capital Investment - in high tech / biotech companies. Risks and opportunities. Event for 500 bankers, analysts, private equity investors, business angels, start-ups, entrepreneurs, venture capital fund managers, scientists, government leaders and media - for Vaekstfonden, Denmark

UNIDO - impact of accession to EU of Central and Eastern Europen nations - and technology issues

The Future of Europe - keynote speech for UNIDO looking at the impact of joining the EU for 10 accession countries, and also the effect of new technology on their economies. Audience: cabinet ministers of 7 nations, and other government leaders from another six, including the Deputy Prime Minister of Ireland.

How to Survive the Future - Guide to Logistics

Major challenges in a rapidly changing world economy to all managers involved in logistics.