Global brands, mergers and demergers future

Globalisation, mega-mergers and acquisitions. Pressure to show how business units build synergy and shareholder value, or pressure by shareholders and analysts to break up global corporations. Future of large organisations. De-mergers, sell-offs, going private, superbrands. avoiding institutional shareholders. Mega brands and local culture. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Why ships will dominate global trade

Ships and shipping, ports and globalisation. International trade and logistics. Just in time. Manufacturing supply chain management and distribution. Lorry, road, rail. Air freight and container ships. Container terminals and stock control management. Industry, emerging markets and developed world. Global trends. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Economic growth former Soviet Bloc / CIS nations

Huge catchup in big cities with massive infrastructure projects. Huge economic opportunities in former soviet bloc countries outside the largest cities in regional development. Huge economic growth in places like Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan. Expect the same in places like Belarus. Business growth and multinational investment. Foreign direct investment. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

More nations in future? Breakup of nations, nationalism

Future of India. Future of UK, England, Scotland and Wales. Future of Ireland. Future of nationalism, tribalism, federalisation, regional governments. Local democracy. Future of the nation state. National protectionism and reactions against globalisation. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

How to make sense of the future - futurist methodology

Try to predict or just respond when change happens. Mining, pharmacueutical industry etc takes very long view. Pensions crisis seen decades ago. Telecom and IT trends are often relatively obvious. Moore's Law. Power of computing. Cost of phone calls. Cost of flying and process of globalisation. Older generation knew form globalization and global communications. Internet was around in late 1970s. But Google and YouTube leaders recognise that behavior can be very hard to predict. Trends analysis. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Globalisation -- educating students for a global future

Most colleges and high schools teach a narrow view of world. Globalisation of economy, job market, outsourcing, impact of mobility of workforce. Preparing students for virtual offices, teams and corporations. Pressures on personal lives and work life balance from international travel. Teaching third millennial skills for virtual communication and virtual team leadership, motivation and winning the war for talent. Increasing productivity. Video on future of education, high schools, colleges, universities, curriculum, trends, syllabus, exams, assessments, business schools, MBAs, degree courses - by Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist conference keynote speaker for NAIS.

How should global business reduce global poverty and ...

Example of social impact of AIDS foundation ACET. But business generates economic growth which can also have huge impact on poverty in poorest nations. Value of assets such as property grows. International trade benefit to emerging economies. Skills transfer and skills training. Positive impact of outsourcing in global well-being. Every job lost in America or Europe creates many new jobs directly and indirectly in Asia or Africa. Some of the wealth comes back to developed nations in demand for products and services. Globalisation can bring problems but also many benefits. But non-profit organisations and foundations also have vital role. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

Future of Kazakhstan

Interesting visit – giving a presentation on the investment potential of the country at a conference in Karaganda opened by the Prime Minister. Kazakhstan is a spectacularly vast and beautiful country, with massive resources of oil, gas, coal, copper, uranium and many other minerals. Kazakhstan is the size of Europe, yet most people in Europe cannot place it on a map. Kazakhstan suffered under the former Soviet regime, was host to many Gulag camps, has been affected by industrial and nuclear pollution on a massive scale, is severely short of water (hence death of the Aral sea), and yet life expectancy and incomes fell from already low levels when Communism ended.

The ending of Russian control created high expectations but the reality was half a decade of chaos and uncertainty as reforms gradually worked through and internal markets began to develop. Living standards fell sharply during those years and life was very tough for millions of people.

Rapid development of oil and gas fields in the early 2000s has resulted in huge economic growth, and Kazakhstan is likely to see continued inflation in real estate prices as well as in other sectors. Government income will rise rapidly as new oil and gas fields come on stream through 2008 onwards, and we can expect major investment in large-scale infrastructure as well as in health and education. At the same time, expect major environmental initiatives, some linked to ecotourism, of which one will be renewed regional efforts to allow the Aral Sea to recover.

Kazakhs are returning to the country and birth rates are rising, while significant numbers of Russians continue to leave. The net effect is likely to be population growth of around 0.5m to 1m every two years. There is a feel of optimism and yet there is a long way to go in improving basic health care and social support, especially for the elderly or vulnerable. Kazakhstan is likely to find that oil and gas wealth is a mixed blessing. As energy exports rise, so will the value of the national currency, making other exports more difficult for tens of thousands of small and medium sized businesses on which the wider and more sustainable future of the economy will depend.

As we have seen in many other oil-rich nations, huge energy reserves can create other challenges ranging from national security threats from energy hungry neighbours, to internal threats from groups keen to take power and cream off wealth for themselves. Neither seem a significant issue at present in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan is strategically placed with political stability, good relations with neighbouring nations, carefully balanced diplomacy with both Russia and the US, and greater religious tolerance than some of its neighbours (the country is roughly half Muslim and half Christian).

There are huge business opportunities here for people who are sensitive to history and culture, globalised in outlook and well connected to people who matter.
The visit was interesting for another reason: the AIDS foundation I started in 1988 (ACET) has trained community workers in HIV prevention in Kazakhstan and other countries in the region so it was helpful to meet key people and learn about the spread of HIV and practical steps being taken to save the lives of young people at risk.

Analysts tip oil will push beyond current record - Business - Business

Analysts tip oil will push beyond current record - Business - Business

Some time ago many people predicted that global economic growth would slow significantly if oil prices rose as high as $50 to $60 - and yet little has happened.

Now some are warning of dire consequencies if the oil price were to rise to $100 a barrel.

The fact is that when we allow for inflation, oil is still cheaper than it was at the height of the oil crisis in the 1970s - 30 years ago.

The oil price per barrel would need to be around $90 to equal the real cost then, but other things have changed. In the 1970s many nations had far higher rates of inflation. Today, globalisation and the digital age have resulted in falling prices across a wide range of goods, and have also reduced the costs of many services like banking.

It could be argued that recent oil prices as low as $15 a barrel were highly undesirable for the sustainable future of the earth, encouraging energy waste and making it impossible to develop profitable alternative energy sources.

From that point of view we should welcome higher oil prices, which are already helping stimulate huge new investment into solar, wind, tide, hydroelectric and other generation methods, while also encouraging fresh efforts in energy conservation.

Higher oil prices suck vast amounts of cash out of oil-poor countries into the hands of oil producers, and this is already finding its way quite rapidly back into other economies. Just look for example at the amount of Middle East wealth that is flowing into the real estate markets in Europe, particularly the UK.

There are a large number of new business opportunities that arise from these wealth movements, and of course from energy conservation / alternative power generation.

Central and Eastern Europe: proceed with caution, 3i warns the food industry

Part of the press release from 3i following my speech in Prague 10 days ago to food and drink industry analysts, investors, bankers:

The Central European region contains 100 million consumers with rising incomes and an appetite for higher quality products. Combine this with the lower wages prevalent throughout the region and it makes for a highly attractive market for retailers and manufacturers alike.

Dr Patrick Dixon, one of Europe's leading futurologists, is optimistic about the potential for food and drink companies in Central Europe, but he cautions companies to be aware of the long-term economic, social and political drivers affecting the region. "It is a common mistake to group the Central and Eastern European countries together. Each is radically different and any company wanting to succeed needs to fully understand the dynamics of each market and get under its skin," he comments.

3i's global head of food and drink, Keith Ellis agrees, "There is no doubt the region represents a first-class opportunity for European food and beverage producers, but for successful strategies, the devil will be in the detail, in terms of location, product, distribution and timing."

The Future of the Coffee Industry - A new vision by Victor Zwald, President Swiss Coffee Trade Association and Dr Patrick Dixon: "The following is adapted from story written in the Financial Times 27 January 2005 by Elizabeth Rigby:
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'Big coffee producers such as Nestle and Kraft have been pressed to introduce a voluntary levy on raw coffee beans as part of a wider move to promote sustainable development. The Worldwide Sustainable Coffee Fund, set up by leading members of the coffee industry, yesterday put forward at an International Coffee Organisation meeting in London a proposal to levy Dollars 1 on every 60kg bag of beans.
Walter Zwald, former president of the Swiss Coffee Trade Association, spearheading the proposal, said the move would raise Dollars 70m a year. 'The money would be split between projects based in producing countries and the promotion of coffee consumption,' he said. The ICO had agreed to explore the proposal and would meet the Coffee Fund team to present a more detailed plan.
The plan has informal backing from 70 per cent of coffee-producing countries. The Coffee Fund first discussed the scheme in 2001 but it was rejected by ICO at that time.
However, the continued fall in coffee prices has prompted a rethink. The ICO estimates that earnings of 50-plus producer countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America have dropped from Dollars 10bn a year to Dollars 5.5bn a year since 1998. The scheme will focus on the mainstream market rather than just the fair-trade segment of the industry, which makes up only 2 per cent of coffee production.
'This is all part of a conversation about sustainable coffee production and human justice,' said Patrick Dixon, chairman of Global Change Limited and a speaker at the ICO conference. 'We know these issues are complex but they have to be solved. The oil i"

The future of the coffee industry

After oil, coffee is the world's greatest commodity in trade terms, and like oil, the coffee industry raises many ethical questions about environment, human rights, inequality between wealthy and poor nations. Reasons perhaps why this presentation to the European Coffee Federation created such a stir at the time and continues to draw heavy web traffic.

Future of the food and drink industry - global business and consumer trends

Keynote lecture on the future of food and drink retailing, how consumers will change behaviour, new preferences, fads and fashions. Slogans and marketing campaigns that will work. Why corporate values and image are easily damaged by scare stories in the media and what to do about it. Challenges of demographic change. Political pressures, new regulations, requirements and standards for food and drink production. Single issue activism, food safety, nutrition. Geneticall modified (GM) foods - what is the future?

The truth about the Iraq war

The Truth about the Iraq War

We can debate the morality and chaotic aftermath of the 2003 Iraq War, and miss the bigger picture, which is far wider than the post 9/11 war against terror, or the current crisis among Palestinians and Israelis, or the situation in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, or the convulsions in the UN and the EU, or US global dominance and accusations of aggressive imperialism.

The problem of the global village - and the truth about the Iraq war

Here is a simple but fundamental question, which was at the heart of the Iraq war controversy: how is the global village to run and be governed? It’s the hidden basis of the political conflicts in the UN over Iraq and similar issues.

The inescapable fact is that we are moving further every day to a one–world economy without a one–world government or legal structure.

Last-century thinking describes a world of nation states, where national sovereignty is absolute and cannot be violated under international law except to resist aggression and in self-defence. That was the French and German position on the war with Iraq and it has very powerful historical precedent.

But life has moved on. We will need a new model altogether if we are to live in prosperity and peace during the third millennium. That’s because at least 4 billion people are already living in towns, cities or rural areas which are profoundly affected by globalisation and the techno-communication revolution. They are already citizens of the global village, or the global nation of all nations.

The start of a new world order began with war in Iraq

Since the collapse of Communism we have seen the beginnings of a new world order: all nations working together in a semi-democratic global body to seek the common good, for the whole of humanity. It may be primitive and rather innefective, but is becoming more significant.

In the last decade the UN has grown in stature from a feeble committee weakened by bickering, paralysed by a tiny minority of countries who had the right of veto. The UN has become a stronger unifying force in world affairs. That’s why sharp debates over how to discipline Iraq’s government have been all the more shocking.

But don’t be misled by aggressive speeches: when you think back to the days of the Cold War, the consensus amongst developed nations in early 2003 for some kind of significant UN intervention in Iraq’s affairs was overwhelming by historical standards, although you would have been forgiven for thinking the opposite from the media coverage of UN voting intentions.

Lesson from the Cold War

During the Cold War, any threat of military invasion of a country by Russia or America would have produced in most cases immediate counter-threats by the other. As a result most wars were waged by proxy in far away places, between small nations funded and armed by both superpowers.

But in March 2003, despite all the hot air, not one nation in the world offered to fight for Sadam and protect Iraq from American invasion, least of all Russia or China. Not one other national army offered soldiers or weapons to protect Iraq national sovereignty, to liberate the people of Bagdad from foreign US-dominated forces, to underpin survival of the Sadam regime.

Sure, some nations held back, abstaining, remaining neutral. Some national leaders were making strong statements of protest - but these turned out to be only words, not backed by bullets. Where were the countries lining up to sell hundreds of high-tech missiles or tanks or planes to Iraq?

So the strange reality is that while it appears at first sight that the new fragile world order is crumbling into the dust, the opposite may be the case. Of course much depend on how Iraq instabily settles or flares, the early and "successful" withdrawal of US and other foreign troops, life for the Iraqi people post-withdrawal, and the impact on the region as a whole.

The current tensions and conflicts may well fuel further waves of terrorism, especially if the US fails to take a powerful lead, together with international support, to help establish a “just” Middle East peace settlement for both Palestinians and Israelis. It may also lead to destabilising regime changes in other Arab nations, replacing family dynasties with anti-American Islamic fundamentalism in countries like Saudi Arabia. But the current spats are unlikely to lead to destruction of the UN, nor the break up of the EU, nor the rapid neutering of American power - quite the opposite.

The world is far more united than words suggest

The truth is that most nations of the world united in condemnation of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, and again in imposing sanctions of many kinds over more than a decade since. They united again post-9/11 in a coalition against terror and more recently in insisting that UN-monitored disarmament took place.

When it came to discussions about weapons inspections and the threat of armed intervention, disagreement was almost entirely over process rather than substance: how disarmament should be achieved, measured, monitored and if necessary imposed, and over what timescale? At what point should the international community conclude that all alternatives to armed intervention have been exhausted? What form should military intervention take under such circumstances? How should it be led and financed? How should the peace be kept, reconstruction proceed and national autonomy be re-established?

Our memories are short. The level of multinational consensus about the need if necessary to intervene in the affairs of rogue states is extraordinary and unusual in world history.

That is why there is such a consensus about Iran now amongst France, Germany, Russia, UK, US, China, India and many other less powerful nations about the need for the international community to act by force if necessary, if Iran continues despite many warnings with an active programme to rapidly develop nuclear warheads.

And so we return to the global village – or rather the global nation of all humanity.

Economically, the world is already operating as a single closely inter-related organism. The problem is that mechanisms for governance, law and order are still primitive – feudal or medieval in nature. We have yet to grow up.

So we have “cities” in the global nation behaving like little kingdoms, taking the law into their own hands whenever it suits them (Russia and America), while at other times appealing to the “government” to impose common will on others.

What of the future? Life after the Iraq war will never be the same

Expect the world-wide love-hate relationship with America to become even more polarised, on the one hand hungrily devouring American media culture, on the other hand increasingly bitter and resentful at American power and lack of sensitivity to how the rest of the world works.

Expect new generations of terrorists to take courage and exact “revenge”, with the aim of “wounding American pride and arrogance”. Every one of them will tell you they are fighting for a higher moral cause.

Expect America to continue to feel deeply hurt, increasingly isolated and angry, the target of frequent terror attacks and general animosity in many places, acting forcefully around the world wherever it feels national interests dictate, and withdrawing to lick its wounds when it does not.

Expect America to be increasingly hostile to the idea of submitting in any respect whatsoever to the will of the global majority, whether on the environment, trade agreements or any other matter, and to be in even less mood to compromise than pre-Iraq War. Expect the US at the same time to make intensive diplomatic efforts to try to win back lost friends, but with ever-deepening suspicion of UN controls, inefficiency, corruption and influence.

In contrast, expect almost the entire rest of the world to invest intensively in the UN as the sole vehicle for solving complex international issues, in a quest to create a more sustainable and peaceful future.

Expect the EU to forge ahead with renewed energy to create structures to balance US power economically and militarily. But the EU will be severely restrained by ongoing internal conflicts, which will be made worse by every new country joining, as well as by unfolding events. Expect the UK to be frozen out of significant decisions by France and Germany who will seize every chance to dominate the future of the EU together, and to humiliate the US. Expect UK doubts to grow about whether it will ever sit comfortably within a Franco-German led federation of EU states. Expect France and Germany to be increasingly worried about rapid enlargement, and dilution of their power by pro-US nations with shaky economies, arguing passionately that the world will be a better place if there is a significant European counter-balance to the US.

Expect several non-European nations to embark on dangerous military adventures, arguing that the US has set a new model for them to copy: “legally” invading other countries when they could possibly be a future threat. India and Pakistan, North and South Korea and so on. These local wars could produce huge problems for the future stability of the world. Expect concerns about this to lead to calls for stronger structures and processes within the UN.

Reforming the UN as a more democratic global authority

A key challenge will be to reform the UN so that it can become more effective and fair as a federation of nations. The current powers of veto are anti-democratic and smack of nineteenth tyranny, held as they are by very few supremely powerful, wealthy nations,

The UN will only carry true global moral authority when each nation is able to cast votes in proportion to it’s contribution to global population, so that each citizen is represented equally without fear or favour. But this is an unthinkable prospect.

Even an idea of such a global assembly will provoke huge reactions in wealthy nations, because it strikes to the root of the most important unsolved problem on the planet today: the fact that most people are extremely poor, with no voice and no vote in world affairs, living off less than $2 a day.

Why global democracy is so unpopular

And so we find an interesting fact: those who live in democratic nations, who uphold democracy as the only honourable form of government, are not really true democrats after all. They have little or no interest in global democracy, in a nation of nations, in seeking the common good of the whole of humanity.

And it is this single fact, more than any other, this inequality of wealth and privilege in our shrinking global village, that will make it more likely that our future is dominate by terror groups, freedom fighters, justice-seekers, hell-raisers, protestors and violent agitators.

The lesson of history is that tyrannies and dictatorships get overthrown, that the will of the majority eventually finds a voice and freedom.

And that is exactly what will eventually happen in our non-democratic, dysfunctional, unjust, global village.

We cannot wind back the clock

We cannot wind the clock back fifty years to a cosy world where these country by country contrasts no longer matter. CNN and Hollywood have seen to that.

On TV screens in the poorest slums on earth, millions of people see their wealthy neighbours go about their daily lives while they scrabble in the dust to find money for basic food and shelter. They have seen the truth.

The digital society created the global village and globalisation the basic rules for trading within it, but neither has taught us how to live together in such a small cultural space. This is the greatest moral challenge of our time.

In a future world where small numbers of activists will wield unimagineable power with dirty bombs, nuclear devices, chemical weapons and strange viruses, our very survival will depend on finding a way to live together in harmony, with freedom and justice for all.

And that will require further extrensions of global governance.

History may record that it took us many decades, possibly, to agree to it – but what will be the pain along the way?