BBC NEWS | Business | Oil boom helps BP beat forecasts
BP is leading the way for many other oil companies with the slogan "Beyond Petroleum", which is a summary of a firm commitment to develop alternative energy sources. However, environmental and safety issues remain a challenge as well as continued dependence on oil for most revenue generation.
Future of your Business, Family and Wider World by Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist Speaker, Keynotes on Growth Strategies and Leadership, Lecture Slides, Articles and Videos from Conferences - 15 million unique visitors to MAIN Futurist site (articles / keynotes / videos) - link on right to www.globalchange.com
April 25, 2006
April 24, 2006
Blogging takes another small step forward
If you can read this post, it shows that blogging has taken another step forward in control of cyberspace. Over 200 million blogger create postings at least once a week, but almost all go to a web page to do so. This posting was created with a simple e-mail which makes posting faster and quicker. It also means that the contents of e-mails can easily be forwarded to the entire online community.
On the delivery side, the number of blog postings which are automatically sent out using e-mail distribution lists or news feeds is also growing fast.
April 23, 2006
200 million people now have a personal blog or web diary
There are now estimated to be more than 200 million personal web diaries or blogs online. Their content is now shaping opinion, making and braking brands.
Many people believe comments about - say - a hotel in a blog far more readily than they believe an official corporate site.
Question: which do you trust more? Online adverts on a search engine, or a community website? My own informal polls of senior executives around the world suggests that unnoficial community sites win almost every time.
It spells the death of traditional advertising and brand management.
If the blogs come up high in the search engines and contain a lot of negative comment about your product, no amount of web advertising is going to help you.
That's why some companies are now employing people to post positive comments about their products and services on bulletin boards, blogs and other community sites, disguising the fact that their agenda is a paid promotion campaign.
It is building up to be a serious issue - and one hafrdly understood by most large corporation leaders.
A prime example is the leisure, travel and hotel industry - just type in the name of a large hotel into Google and see how far down you need to look before you hit a site like www.traveladvisor.com.
Many people believe comments about - say - a hotel in a blog far more readily than they believe an official corporate site.
Question: which do you trust more? Online adverts on a search engine, or a community website? My own informal polls of senior executives around the world suggests that unnoficial community sites win almost every time.
It spells the death of traditional advertising and brand management.
If the blogs come up high in the search engines and contain a lot of negative comment about your product, no amount of web advertising is going to help you.
That's why some companies are now employing people to post positive comments about their products and services on bulletin boards, blogs and other community sites, disguising the fact that their agenda is a paid promotion campaign.
It is building up to be a serious issue - and one hafrdly understood by most large corporation leaders.
A prime example is the leisure, travel and hotel industry - just type in the name of a large hotel into Google and see how far down you need to look before you hit a site like www.traveladvisor.com.
April 22, 2006
Future of Marketing
Future of Marketing
You can find many presentations on marketing including videos on a wide range of related issues on http://www.globalchange.com/ppt/index.htm
You can find many presentations on marketing including videos on a wide range of related issues on http://www.globalchange.com/ppt/index.htm
Teenagers getting fatter in spite of health drive - Britain - Times Online
Obesity will be a major problem in future not only in wealthy nations, but also in emerging economies among the increasingly affluent.
One third of babies born today in the United States will develop diabetes during their lives as a direct result of being overweight, and obesity is estimated already to cost the US health care system many billions of dollars a year, plus lost productivity to the economy.
Expect to see many innovative approaches by pharmacuetical companies in addition to other control measures by governments such as additional regulations on marketing junk food to children.
Creative solutions could include developing new drugs which are similar to thyroxine. One such compound causes monkeys to lose a significant amount of their body weight on a normal diet in just a couple of weeks, without the normal toxic effects that one might expect on the heart.
One third of babies born today in the United States will develop diabetes during their lives as a direct result of being overweight, and obesity is estimated already to cost the US health care system many billions of dollars a year, plus lost productivity to the economy.
Expect to see many innovative approaches by pharmacuetical companies in addition to other control measures by governments such as additional regulations on marketing junk food to children.
Creative solutions could include developing new drugs which are similar to thyroxine. One such compound causes monkeys to lose a significant amount of their body weight on a normal diet in just a couple of weeks, without the normal toxic effects that one might expect on the heart.
April 21, 2006
Analysts tip oil will push beyond current record - Business - Business
Analysts tip oil will push beyond current record - Business - Business
Some time ago many people predicted that global economic growth would slow significantly if oil prices rose as high as $50 to $60 - and yet little has happened.
Now some are warning of dire consequencies if the oil price were to rise to $100 a barrel.
The fact is that when we allow for inflation, oil is still cheaper than it was at the height of the oil crisis in the 1970s - 30 years ago.
The oil price per barrel would need to be around $90 to equal the real cost then, but other things have changed. In the 1970s many nations had far higher rates of inflation. Today, globalisation and the digital age have resulted in falling prices across a wide range of goods, and have also reduced the costs of many services like banking.
It could be argued that recent oil prices as low as $15 a barrel were highly undesirable for the sustainable future of the earth, encouraging energy waste and making it impossible to develop profitable alternative energy sources.
From that point of view we should welcome higher oil prices, which are already helping stimulate huge new investment into solar, wind, tide, hydroelectric and other generation methods, while also encouraging fresh efforts in energy conservation.
Higher oil prices suck vast amounts of cash out of oil-poor countries into the hands of oil producers, and this is already finding its way quite rapidly back into other economies. Just look for example at the amount of Middle East wealth that is flowing into the real estate markets in Europe, particularly the UK.
There are a large number of new business opportunities that arise from these wealth movements, and of course from energy conservation / alternative power generation.
Some time ago many people predicted that global economic growth would slow significantly if oil prices rose as high as $50 to $60 - and yet little has happened.
Now some are warning of dire consequencies if the oil price were to rise to $100 a barrel.
The fact is that when we allow for inflation, oil is still cheaper than it was at the height of the oil crisis in the 1970s - 30 years ago.
The oil price per barrel would need to be around $90 to equal the real cost then, but other things have changed. In the 1970s many nations had far higher rates of inflation. Today, globalisation and the digital age have resulted in falling prices across a wide range of goods, and have also reduced the costs of many services like banking.
It could be argued that recent oil prices as low as $15 a barrel were highly undesirable for the sustainable future of the earth, encouraging energy waste and making it impossible to develop profitable alternative energy sources.
From that point of view we should welcome higher oil prices, which are already helping stimulate huge new investment into solar, wind, tide, hydroelectric and other generation methods, while also encouraging fresh efforts in energy conservation.
Higher oil prices suck vast amounts of cash out of oil-poor countries into the hands of oil producers, and this is already finding its way quite rapidly back into other economies. Just look for example at the amount of Middle East wealth that is flowing into the real estate markets in Europe, particularly the UK.
There are a large number of new business opportunities that arise from these wealth movements, and of course from energy conservation / alternative power generation.
April 20, 2006
Human nature - better than we sometimes think?
Comment on the power indviduals have to create damage and chaos - yet how few do so... how most people are responsible, law abiding citizens who respect those around them:
Yes you are right about the asymmetry of antisocial acts in terms of effort for impact - and this has always been a problem for society eg the tiny effort needed to commit arson, or to daub graffiti on walls, or to deliberately drive a car into a bus queue. Yet the strange thing is how rarely these acts happen, and how powerful is the social pressure on people to "behave" in a way that respects community.
The same with theft. It amazes me how few people carrying laptops in their bags, or using them on tube trains, are mugged for what is a very valuable item....
The vast majority of people in every country most of the time act in ways that enhance community.
Most people give time to community causes they believe in, and so on...
Yes the problems of society are huge and growing and the answers are complex, but the innate creativity of human beings and their passion for change should also not be underestimated.
It is indeed the reason why suicide bombers blow themselves up, in a
(misguided) ultruistic belief that the world will be a better place as a result of their "self sacrifice".
The other noteworthy thing is how resilient society is to major shocks.
Take London in the second world war when one in 4 of all homes were rendered unusable because of random rocket attacks. The result? Life went on. That's why we know that a few suicide bombers in London, even if more arrive, cannot possibly alter daily life in a major way. Actually we have lived with terrorism (IRA) in the UK for several decades.
You see the same in war-torn regions of Africa... in the midst of instability and troubles, daily existence for most people usually continues relatively unchanged (compared to what some might imagine).
Yes you are right about the asymmetry of antisocial acts in terms of effort for impact - and this has always been a problem for society eg the tiny effort needed to commit arson, or to daub graffiti on walls, or to deliberately drive a car into a bus queue. Yet the strange thing is how rarely these acts happen, and how powerful is the social pressure on people to "behave" in a way that respects community.
The same with theft. It amazes me how few people carrying laptops in their bags, or using them on tube trains, are mugged for what is a very valuable item....
The vast majority of people in every country most of the time act in ways that enhance community.
Most people give time to community causes they believe in, and so on...
Yes the problems of society are huge and growing and the answers are complex, but the innate creativity of human beings and their passion for change should also not be underestimated.
It is indeed the reason why suicide bombers blow themselves up, in a
(misguided) ultruistic belief that the world will be a better place as a result of their "self sacrifice".
The other noteworthy thing is how resilient society is to major shocks.
Take London in the second world war when one in 4 of all homes were rendered unusable because of random rocket attacks. The result? Life went on. That's why we know that a few suicide bombers in London, even if more arrive, cannot possibly alter daily life in a major way. Actually we have lived with terrorism (IRA) in the UK for several decades.
You see the same in war-torn regions of Africa... in the midst of instability and troubles, daily existence for most people usually continues relatively unchanged (compared to what some might imagine).
April 18, 2006
Latest website updates on future trends
Many new presentations and some new videos
Large number of additional presentations on global trends of all kinds on my website
Large number of additional presentations on global trends of all kinds on my website
February 08, 2006
Deadly bird flu found in Nigeria
It was almost inevitable that bird flu would hit Africa. Containing spread in this continent will be a near impossible task since many countries are very poor with little or no infrastructure to monitor outbreaks, educate people about what to do, or to remunerate them for slaughtering their birds.
January 12, 2006
WHO Tries to Calm Bird Flu Fears After Turkey Outbreak - CME Teaching Brief - MedPage Today
WHO Tries to Calm Bird Flu Fears After Turkey Outbreak - CME Teaching Brief - MedPage Today
The greatest immediate risk is that bird flu will spread into parts of Africa where there is extensive human - bird contact, and very few resources for tracking and elimination of infected birds. This will greatly increase the risk of a human mutation which could result in very rapid spread across human populations.
The greatest immediate risk is that bird flu will spread into parts of Africa where there is extensive human - bird contact, and very few resources for tracking and elimination of infected birds. This will greatly increase the risk of a human mutation which could result in very rapid spread across human populations.
December 22, 2005
December 20, 2005
China onward march to become world's 6th largest economy
China raised its estimate of output this week by a sixth. The new estimate is based on a nationwide census which means China is now above Italy in sixth place in the world economic rankings of 2004 output, measured in dollars at market exchange rates.
Based on 2005 exchange rate movements and relative growth rates, economists calculate that China has now risen to fourth place, ahead of France and Britain, but behind the US, Japan and Germany.
The revision reflects better information on the services sector and on private firms, unearthed during a survey using 13 million people - one in every 100 Chinese.
Based on 2005 exchange rate movements and relative growth rates, economists calculate that China has now risen to fourth place, ahead of France and Britain, but behind the US, Japan and Germany.
The revision reflects better information on the services sector and on private firms, unearthed during a survey using 13 million people - one in every 100 Chinese.
December 17, 2005
London Stock Exchange in yet more discussions about mergers
Almost every week there is another news story about possible consolidation of various national stock exchanges around the world. This is long overdue. Globalisation and the digital economy are making traditional stock exchanges look very out of date.
See Bloomsberg news story below and the comments I made serveral years ago, about likely megers in Europe of national Stock Exchanges.
http://www.globalchange.com/stock.htm
Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) London Stock Exchange Plc's biggest shareholder said it won't accept the 1.5 billion-pound takeover bid by a group led by Macquarie Ltd - Australia's largest investment bank.
Sydney-based Macquarie and other investors including Macquarie Capital Alliance Group and Finpro SGPS SA offered 580 pence a share in cash for LSE, below the closing share price of 622 pence a share on Dec. 14.
See Bloomsberg news story below and the comments I made serveral years ago, about likely megers in Europe of national Stock Exchanges.
http://www.globalchange.com/stock.htm
Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) London Stock Exchange Plc's biggest shareholder said it won't accept the 1.5 billion-pound takeover bid by a group led by Macquarie Ltd - Australia's largest investment bank.
Sydney-based Macquarie and other investors including Macquarie Capital Alliance Group and Finpro SGPS SA offered 580 pence a share in cash for LSE, below the closing share price of 622 pence a share on Dec. 14.
December 16, 2005
Convergence: Life after convergence in IT, telecom, consumer behaviour
Life after Convergence - Why so many companies are unprepared
Telecom companies become media houses. Food retailers become online banks. Computers become phones and video stores. However, while we will see convergence in products and services on price, features and quality, we will also see huge new investment in diversity - See article just posted on http://www.globalchange.com/convergence.htm
Telecom companies become media houses. Food retailers become online banks. Computers become phones and video stores. However, while we will see convergence in products and services on price, features and quality, we will also see huge new investment in diversity - See article just posted on http://www.globalchange.com/convergence.htm
December 14, 2005
Bird flu: human pandemic could disrupt a country for more than six months - New Zealand's leading news and information website
Extract from Manawatu Standard New Zealand which indicates how another government is thinking about the threat of bird flu spreading amongst humans. As I have always said, the biggest impact is likely to be from an emotional reaction amongst people at home and at work, which will propel governments to drastic measures such as border closure even where such measures have been largely overtaken by events. The most likely scenario is a mutation into human form of bird flu (100% likely according to the World Health Organisation - only a matter of time) but in a far less dangerous way than worst case scenarios, perhaps with a death toll equivalent to 2-5 times a normal annual flu epidemic.
Text of the news bulletin:
Emergency managers are warning that a bird flu pandemic could last up to six months and people should be prepared to stay indoors that long.
Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management readiness manager Mike O'Leary said a bird flu pandemic could strike in multiple waves, lasting up to six months.
"Three waves of approximately eight weeks each is what we are planning for," Mr O'Leary told Human Resources magazine.
Local Government Online chief executive Jim Higgins said it is rubbish to think a pandemic would last a few days.
". . .I've heard people on television speaking of a pandemic lasting a week or two, and I think, 'That's complete rubbish.' More likely a pandemic is going to last for three to six months, with two or three waves of infection."
Local Government Online would be key to providing information during an pandemic.
New Zealand's existing emergency response planning is for short, sharp disasters, such as earthquakes or floods, with mop-up afterward.
"When you think about all the (emergency response) planning that's been done to date, none of it includes anything about not being able to go outside for an extended period of perhaps three to six months. This threat is unique," Mr Higgins said.
Mr O'Leary also warned New Zealand would largely have to manage alone: "Public expectations will be high that relief will come to them, but there will be no cavalry coming over the horizon."
Bird flu is now only a threat, but health experts are worried that a small mutation of the H5N1 virus could let it transmit between humans, and humans have no natural immunity to it.
Health Ministry senior clinical adviser Andrea Forde said the key to surviving any pandemic will be in how well prepared people are, how quickly people can respond and how soon recovery happens.
A pandemic outbreak would see quarantine measures imposed, closing schools and workplaces to prevent infection from spreading. International borders would also be closed, affecting exports and imports. The experts say it could take months to get business functioning again. Getting back to normal would take longer.
Mr Higgins said businesses had to accept the pandemic is going to happen and to start planning.
"It's not a Y2K scenario. If businesses fail to heed this and do not have contingency plans in place, they will most likely grind to a halt."
Ministry of Economic Development resources and networks director Tony Fenwick said a pandemic would see businesses close either because they had to or through reduced demand.
Key industries must plan now for a pandemic, Mr Fenwick said.
"Undisrupted provision of key infrastructure services, the food-supply chain, the capacity of the health sector, the continued operation of banking-payments systems and the legal system are areas we must focus on," he said.
Mr Higgins said the chance of containing bird flu, as Sars was contained, may be remote because of the more infectious nature of influenza.
". . .so we have to look at ways to ride a pandemic out. One of the best ways to do that will be to limit personal contact," he said.
That means businesses have to immediately start looking at ways staff can work from home. Email and telecommunications will be the top tools to keep functioning.
"This really is the sort of line we have to follow to avoid unnecessary infection."
See also http://www.globalchange.com/birdflu.htm
Text of the news bulletin:
Emergency managers are warning that a bird flu pandemic could last up to six months and people should be prepared to stay indoors that long.
Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management readiness manager Mike O'Leary said a bird flu pandemic could strike in multiple waves, lasting up to six months.
"Three waves of approximately eight weeks each is what we are planning for," Mr O'Leary told Human Resources magazine.
Local Government Online chief executive Jim Higgins said it is rubbish to think a pandemic would last a few days.
". . .I've heard people on television speaking of a pandemic lasting a week or two, and I think, 'That's complete rubbish.' More likely a pandemic is going to last for three to six months, with two or three waves of infection."
Local Government Online would be key to providing information during an pandemic.
New Zealand's existing emergency response planning is for short, sharp disasters, such as earthquakes or floods, with mop-up afterward.
"When you think about all the (emergency response) planning that's been done to date, none of it includes anything about not being able to go outside for an extended period of perhaps three to six months. This threat is unique," Mr Higgins said.
Mr O'Leary also warned New Zealand would largely have to manage alone: "Public expectations will be high that relief will come to them, but there will be no cavalry coming over the horizon."
Bird flu is now only a threat, but health experts are worried that a small mutation of the H5N1 virus could let it transmit between humans, and humans have no natural immunity to it.
Health Ministry senior clinical adviser Andrea Forde said the key to surviving any pandemic will be in how well prepared people are, how quickly people can respond and how soon recovery happens.
A pandemic outbreak would see quarantine measures imposed, closing schools and workplaces to prevent infection from spreading. International borders would also be closed, affecting exports and imports. The experts say it could take months to get business functioning again. Getting back to normal would take longer.
Mr Higgins said businesses had to accept the pandemic is going to happen and to start planning.
"It's not a Y2K scenario. If businesses fail to heed this and do not have contingency plans in place, they will most likely grind to a halt."
Ministry of Economic Development resources and networks director Tony Fenwick said a pandemic would see businesses close either because they had to or through reduced demand.
Key industries must plan now for a pandemic, Mr Fenwick said.
"Undisrupted provision of key infrastructure services, the food-supply chain, the capacity of the health sector, the continued operation of banking-payments systems and the legal system are areas we must focus on," he said.
Mr Higgins said the chance of containing bird flu, as Sars was contained, may be remote because of the more infectious nature of influenza.
". . .so we have to look at ways to ride a pandemic out. One of the best ways to do that will be to limit personal contact," he said.
That means businesses have to immediately start looking at ways staff can work from home. Email and telecommunications will be the top tools to keep functioning.
"This really is the sort of line we have to follow to avoid unnecessary infection."
See also http://www.globalchange.com/birdflu.htm
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