What will happen if bird flu mutates into a rapidly spreading epidemic? Death toll estimates from governments and how society is most likely to be impacted - even if death rates turn out to be very low. Video comment by Futurist physician Dr Patrick Dixon.
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Showing posts with label bird flu. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bird flu. Show all posts
June 29, 2008
Bird flu - real risks to personal lives, business, society
February 08, 2006
Deadly bird flu found in Nigeria
It was almost inevitable that bird flu would hit Africa. Containing spread in this continent will be a near impossible task since many countries are very poor with little or no infrastructure to monitor outbreaks, educate people about what to do, or to remunerate them for slaughtering their birds.
January 12, 2006
WHO Tries to Calm Bird Flu Fears After Turkey Outbreak - CME Teaching Brief - MedPage Today
WHO Tries to Calm Bird Flu Fears After Turkey Outbreak - CME Teaching Brief - MedPage Today
The greatest immediate risk is that bird flu will spread into parts of Africa where there is extensive human - bird contact, and very few resources for tracking and elimination of infected birds. This will greatly increase the risk of a human mutation which could result in very rapid spread across human populations.
The greatest immediate risk is that bird flu will spread into parts of Africa where there is extensive human - bird contact, and very few resources for tracking and elimination of infected birds. This will greatly increase the risk of a human mutation which could result in very rapid spread across human populations.
December 14, 2005
Bird flu: human pandemic could disrupt a country for more than six months - New Zealand's leading news and information website
Extract from Manawatu Standard New Zealand which indicates how another government is thinking about the threat of bird flu spreading amongst humans. As I have always said, the biggest impact is likely to be from an emotional reaction amongst people at home and at work, which will propel governments to drastic measures such as border closure even where such measures have been largely overtaken by events. The most likely scenario is a mutation into human form of bird flu (100% likely according to the World Health Organisation - only a matter of time) but in a far less dangerous way than worst case scenarios, perhaps with a death toll equivalent to 2-5 times a normal annual flu epidemic.
Text of the news bulletin:
Emergency managers are warning that a bird flu pandemic could last up to six months and people should be prepared to stay indoors that long.
Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management readiness manager Mike O'Leary said a bird flu pandemic could strike in multiple waves, lasting up to six months.
"Three waves of approximately eight weeks each is what we are planning for," Mr O'Leary told Human Resources magazine.
Local Government Online chief executive Jim Higgins said it is rubbish to think a pandemic would last a few days.
". . .I've heard people on television speaking of a pandemic lasting a week or two, and I think, 'That's complete rubbish.' More likely a pandemic is going to last for three to six months, with two or three waves of infection."
Local Government Online would be key to providing information during an pandemic.
New Zealand's existing emergency response planning is for short, sharp disasters, such as earthquakes or floods, with mop-up afterward.
"When you think about all the (emergency response) planning that's been done to date, none of it includes anything about not being able to go outside for an extended period of perhaps three to six months. This threat is unique," Mr Higgins said.
Mr O'Leary also warned New Zealand would largely have to manage alone: "Public expectations will be high that relief will come to them, but there will be no cavalry coming over the horizon."
Bird flu is now only a threat, but health experts are worried that a small mutation of the H5N1 virus could let it transmit between humans, and humans have no natural immunity to it.
Health Ministry senior clinical adviser Andrea Forde said the key to surviving any pandemic will be in how well prepared people are, how quickly people can respond and how soon recovery happens.
A pandemic outbreak would see quarantine measures imposed, closing schools and workplaces to prevent infection from spreading. International borders would also be closed, affecting exports and imports. The experts say it could take months to get business functioning again. Getting back to normal would take longer.
Mr Higgins said businesses had to accept the pandemic is going to happen and to start planning.
"It's not a Y2K scenario. If businesses fail to heed this and do not have contingency plans in place, they will most likely grind to a halt."
Ministry of Economic Development resources and networks director Tony Fenwick said a pandemic would see businesses close either because they had to or through reduced demand.
Key industries must plan now for a pandemic, Mr Fenwick said.
"Undisrupted provision of key infrastructure services, the food-supply chain, the capacity of the health sector, the continued operation of banking-payments systems and the legal system are areas we must focus on," he said.
Mr Higgins said the chance of containing bird flu, as Sars was contained, may be remote because of the more infectious nature of influenza.
". . .so we have to look at ways to ride a pandemic out. One of the best ways to do that will be to limit personal contact," he said.
That means businesses have to immediately start looking at ways staff can work from home. Email and telecommunications will be the top tools to keep functioning.
"This really is the sort of line we have to follow to avoid unnecessary infection."
See also http://www.globalchange.com/birdflu.htm
Text of the news bulletin:
Emergency managers are warning that a bird flu pandemic could last up to six months and people should be prepared to stay indoors that long.
Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management readiness manager Mike O'Leary said a bird flu pandemic could strike in multiple waves, lasting up to six months.
"Three waves of approximately eight weeks each is what we are planning for," Mr O'Leary told Human Resources magazine.
Local Government Online chief executive Jim Higgins said it is rubbish to think a pandemic would last a few days.
". . .I've heard people on television speaking of a pandemic lasting a week or two, and I think, 'That's complete rubbish.' More likely a pandemic is going to last for three to six months, with two or three waves of infection."
Local Government Online would be key to providing information during an pandemic.
New Zealand's existing emergency response planning is for short, sharp disasters, such as earthquakes or floods, with mop-up afterward.
"When you think about all the (emergency response) planning that's been done to date, none of it includes anything about not being able to go outside for an extended period of perhaps three to six months. This threat is unique," Mr Higgins said.
Mr O'Leary also warned New Zealand would largely have to manage alone: "Public expectations will be high that relief will come to them, but there will be no cavalry coming over the horizon."
Bird flu is now only a threat, but health experts are worried that a small mutation of the H5N1 virus could let it transmit between humans, and humans have no natural immunity to it.
Health Ministry senior clinical adviser Andrea Forde said the key to surviving any pandemic will be in how well prepared people are, how quickly people can respond and how soon recovery happens.
A pandemic outbreak would see quarantine measures imposed, closing schools and workplaces to prevent infection from spreading. International borders would also be closed, affecting exports and imports. The experts say it could take months to get business functioning again. Getting back to normal would take longer.
Mr Higgins said businesses had to accept the pandemic is going to happen and to start planning.
"It's not a Y2K scenario. If businesses fail to heed this and do not have contingency plans in place, they will most likely grind to a halt."
Ministry of Economic Development resources and networks director Tony Fenwick said a pandemic would see businesses close either because they had to or through reduced demand.
Key industries must plan now for a pandemic, Mr Fenwick said.
"Undisrupted provision of key infrastructure services, the food-supply chain, the capacity of the health sector, the continued operation of banking-payments systems and the legal system are areas we must focus on," he said.
Mr Higgins said the chance of containing bird flu, as Sars was contained, may be remote because of the more infectious nature of influenza.
". . .so we have to look at ways to ride a pandemic out. One of the best ways to do that will be to limit personal contact," he said.
That means businesses have to immediately start looking at ways staff can work from home. Email and telecommunications will be the top tools to keep functioning.
"This really is the sort of line we have to follow to avoid unnecessary infection."
See also http://www.globalchange.com/birdflu.htm
December 07, 2005
Reuters AlertNet - Latest bird flu cases in humans
Dec 7 (Reuters) - A 10-year-old girl in the southern Chinese province of Guangxi is the latest human victim of H5N1 avian influenza, the World Health Organisation confirmed.
The girl developed symptoms of fever and cough on Nov. 23, followed by pneumonia and is being treated in hospital, the WHO said.
Comment: initial reports have suggested that the girl is in an area where no birds are sick, raising questions about whether she caught the infection from a bird or another person.
Continued concerns that milder cases of humans with bird flu may be being missed, and that human to human spread could begin without being obvious, if the illness is insufficiently serious to raise suspicion.
The girl developed symptoms of fever and cough on Nov. 23, followed by pneumonia and is being treated in hospital, the WHO said.
Comment: initial reports have suggested that the girl is in an area where no birds are sick, raising questions about whether she caught the infection from a bird or another person.
Continued concerns that milder cases of humans with bird flu may be being missed, and that human to human spread could begin without being obvious, if the illness is insufficiently serious to raise suspicion.
November 12, 2005
China reports new bird flu outbreaks, and other countries report more cases
Bird flu continues to spread unchecked with new countries reporting cases every few days. While the risk of human to human spread remains very low unless there is a mutation, the chances of such an event are growing with every new outbreak of the disease amonst domestic birds.
China reported its seventh and eighth bird flu outbreaks in three weeks. Vietnam has ordered police and the military to help fight the disease. In Thailand, an 18-month-old boy became the 21st person to catch the H5N1 bird flu virus, but is recovering in a hospital. North Korea issued an alert restricting access to chicken farms, urging the public to help fight bird flu.
One of the new Chinese outbreaks was in Liaoning province in the north east. Premier Wen Jiabao visited Liaoning this week and warned that the disease was not under control. The outbreak killed 300 chickens in Beining village near the city of Jinzhou, the agriculture ministry said in a report on the website of the Paris-based International Organisation for Animal Health. 2.5 million birds were destroyed to contain the outbreak.
The other outbreak, in Hubei province's Jingshan County, has killed 2,500 poultry. Authorities haved destroyed more than 31,000 birds, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. The case, which reportedly occurred on November 2. China has reported no human cases.
China reported its seventh and eighth bird flu outbreaks in three weeks. Vietnam has ordered police and the military to help fight the disease. In Thailand, an 18-month-old boy became the 21st person to catch the H5N1 bird flu virus, but is recovering in a hospital. North Korea issued an alert restricting access to chicken farms, urging the public to help fight bird flu.
One of the new Chinese outbreaks was in Liaoning province in the north east. Premier Wen Jiabao visited Liaoning this week and warned that the disease was not under control. The outbreak killed 300 chickens in Beining village near the city of Jinzhou, the agriculture ministry said in a report on the website of the Paris-based International Organisation for Animal Health. 2.5 million birds were destroyed to contain the outbreak.
The other outbreak, in Hubei province's Jingshan County, has killed 2,500 poultry. Authorities haved destroyed more than 31,000 birds, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. The case, which reportedly occurred on November 2. China has reported no human cases.
October 31, 2005
World loses control of Bird Flu - facts, pictures, truth about avian influenza virus risks
Bird Flu - spread, facts, pictures, truth about avian influenza virus risks
Global human pandemic of bird flu is now only a matter of time according to the World Health Organisation. What will be the economic and personal impact when bird flu virus mutates?
David Nabarro Bird Flu chief at the UN / WHO, declared in October 2005 that a human pandemic of bird flu can no longer be prevented, even though the first human to human case has yet to be recorded.
This WHO prediction is based on the fact that the world has lost control of bird flu amongst migrating wild birds which are rapidly spreading the disease to chickens and other domestic birds, with cases in many nations. Every time a human catches the infection from close contact with such a bird there is a small risk that the virus will mutate - if the person is already infected with ordinary human flu.
The UK has declared bird flu as public health enemey number 1. The government has given a commitment to try and vaccinate the entire population of the country against the new human variant once one emerges, even though spread of such a virus could occur months before vaccinations are manufactured and given.
Read full article
Global human pandemic of bird flu is now only a matter of time according to the World Health Organisation. What will be the economic and personal impact when bird flu virus mutates?
David Nabarro Bird Flu chief at the UN / WHO, declared in October 2005 that a human pandemic of bird flu can no longer be prevented, even though the first human to human case has yet to be recorded.
This WHO prediction is based on the fact that the world has lost control of bird flu amongst migrating wild birds which are rapidly spreading the disease to chickens and other domestic birds, with cases in many nations. Every time a human catches the infection from close contact with such a bird there is a small risk that the virus will mutate - if the person is already infected with ordinary human flu.
The UK has declared bird flu as public health enemey number 1. The government has given a commitment to try and vaccinate the entire population of the country against the new human variant once one emerges, even though spread of such a virus could occur months before vaccinations are manufactured and given.
Read full article
Feature in Financial Times by Dr Patrick Dixon on tribalism and ageing
Your company may have a reputation for brilliant leadership, outstanding innovation, clever branding and effective change management, but the business could fail if the world changes and you are unprepared.
Many debates about the future are about timing, such as the uptake of technology. But the future is also about emotion. Reactions to events such as bird flu are often more important than the events themselves.
Many debates about the future are about timing, such as the uptake of technology. But the future is also about emotion. Reactions to events such as bird flu are often more important than the events themselves.
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