The Future of China

The future of China: chinese economic growth, statistics, graphs and tables, demography, social trends, outsourcing, exports and other useful data - presentation slides

Technology: life after convergence - what happens next?

Life after Convergence ? innovation, variety and divergence

Everyone is talking about convergence, yet few corporations fully understand the real threats and opportunities. Telecom companies become software and media houses. Food retailers become online banks. Computers become phones and video stores, while phones become TVs, and cameras become e-mail devices. However, while we will see many strange partnerships, with convergence in products and services on price, features and quality, we will also see huge new investment in diversity. The nanopod is just one example of divergent, highly specialised, low cost devices, designed to do just one simple thing really well. In comparison, convergence can be boring, destroys variety, breeds monopoly, kills invention, adds unwanted options, makes life more complicated - and robs consumers of choice.

Convergence is about co-packaging, but all real innovation is about diversity: doing things different to serve clients better. Many companies are trying hard to sell single multi-tasking, convergent (expensive) devices to solve all problems. Take the so-called digital home: convergence might mean total control with wireless TV / video / music / web in every room, all from one online PC, also used for children?s games and homework - or a fridge that is also a web browser. But who really wants web access on a fridge door, or a single remote control for every device in the house, or a single device to play the same music in every room?

Divergence means I have a nanopod for personal music, plus a tiny mobile phone (useless for serious camera use), a pocket PDA with colour screen and video, an ultra-small portable PC with 5.5 hours battery life suitable for long flights, and a giant-screened laptop for high-powered applications, suitable for car journeys where screen size prevents nausea and eye strain. I also have a data projector for a 3 metre wide home cinema with a dedicated DVD / digital TV system, and so on.

We need to keep focussed on the needs of ordinary people who want many simple, well-designed, reliable, low cost products ? to do different things. We need to encourage diversity, innovation and creative genius, to improve quality of life, solve real problems and make great things happen. Convergence is important but divergence will drive the future, and survival of every technology company will depend on it.

Reuters AlertNet - Latest bird flu cases in humans

Dec 7 (Reuters) - A 10-year-old girl in the southern Chinese province of Guangxi is the latest human victim of H5N1 avian influenza, the World Health Organisation confirmed.

The girl developed symptoms of fever and cough on Nov. 23, followed by pneumonia and is being treated in hospital, the WHO said.

Comment: initial reports have suggested that the girl is in an area where no birds are sick, raising questions about whether she caught the infection from a bird or another person.

Continued concerns that milder cases of humans with bird flu may be being missed, and that human to human spread could begin without being obvious, if the illness is insufficiently serious to raise suspicion.

Central and Eastern Europe: proceed with caution, 3i warns the food industry

Part of the press release from 3i following my speech in Prague 10 days ago to food and drink industry analysts, investors, bankers:

The Central European region contains 100 million consumers with rising incomes and an appetite for higher quality products. Combine this with the lower wages prevalent throughout the region and it makes for a highly attractive market for retailers and manufacturers alike.

Dr Patrick Dixon, one of Europe's leading futurologists, is optimistic about the potential for food and drink companies in Central Europe, but he cautions companies to be aware of the long-term economic, social and political drivers affecting the region. "It is a common mistake to group the Central and Eastern European countries together. Each is radically different and any company wanting to succeed needs to fully understand the dynamics of each market and get under its skin," he comments.

3i's global head of food and drink, Keith Ellis agrees, "There is no doubt the region represents a first-class opportunity for European food and beverage producers, but for successful strategies, the devil will be in the detail, in terms of location, product, distribution and timing."

The Million Dollar Homepage - Own a piece of internet history!

Here is an interesting story: a student who is about to earn a million dollars by selling pixels on a single page of his website to companies!

Have a look...

Podcast - many problems

This podcasting business has a long way to go... could really take off but is still a messy business to set up....

Podcast of lecture on new technology for 2,000 clients of Fujitsu Siemens by Patrick Dixon

Click on link above to listen to MP3 of one hour presentation on new technology, consumers, fashions and fads, what's coming up next and how corporations should get ready. You can also watch video of the same presentation on http://www.globalchange.com/ppt/fscfuture and subscribe to regular podcasts on http://feeds.feedburner.com/DrPatrickDixon-FutureTrends

Podcasting takes off

Podcasting is a way of delivering your own music or speech to ipod users around the world, who can collect your new broadcasts automatically when they connect to the net. I have been trying to set it up for a few hours now - and it needs to be made much simpler: making the audio file, translating into MP3, uploading and then notifying the online community about it.

More soon....

China aviation industry growing fast

China signed a framework document today with Airbus for 150 mid-range planes worth nearly 10 billion dollars during a visit rance by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. The contract, signed by Airbus chief executive Gustav Humbert and the president of the China Aviation Supplies Import and Export Group, Li Hai, covers aircraft from Airbus's A320 family of single-aisle planes, which typically seat up to 185 passengers. The A320 family of single-aisle jets comprises four aircraft capable of seating 107 to 185 passengers.

This is just a small demonstation of the massive expansion that we can expect in the Chinese aviation industry.

Skype Partners For Webcam Sales

Skype has launched a video-enabled addition to the free telephone service after being bought recently by e-Bay. It works well and is a fast, easy way to get low cost videolinks but does not yet rival traditional videoconference software. Logitech and Creative joined Skype on Thursday to co-market the Luxembourg-based VoIP developer's newest software with their cameras and headsets. Skype has released the beta version of Skype 2.0, which features integrated video calling.

Skype worked with Logitech and Creative to ensure that their webcams would function properly with new video functions of Skype 2.0. Many of Logitech's QuickCam range of webcams have been certified to work with Skype 2.0, including Fusion, Orbit, Pro, Zoom, and Notebooks Pro models. Creative, meanwhile, has introduced the Creative WebCam Instant Skype Edition, which bundles a webcam with headset, Skype, and a stand-alone microphone. Creative's Skype-certified webcams will be available at retailers in Europe, while Logitech's can be purchased through the Skype online store. Skype 2.0 can be downloaded from the Skype Web site.

China senior official resigns over Harbin toxic spillage

China's chief environment official, Xie Zhenhuahas, the director-general of the State Environment Protection Administration (SEPA), has resigned in the wake of sharp public criticism of the handling of a toxic spill into the Songhua river, which supplies water to millions of farmers and city dwellers, including Harbin, in north-east China.

The resignation was announced tonight in a statement through the official Xinhua news agency. Mr Xie has been forced out and is to take responsibility for the damage caused by the spill into the Songhua river, near Harbin, and SEPA?s mishandling of its aftermath, according to the statement.

Comment: Central government is taking strong measures to show that action is being taken in an effort to maintain trust.

Europeans reject abstinence message in split with US on Aids

We continue to see a polarised debate about how to prevent HIV transmission between some of those in developed nations who tend to favour condoms above all else (sometimes perhaps to the exclusion of other options), and those in the poorest nations who often feel the case for abstinence and faithfulness is being ignored (and sometimes feel uncomfortable talking about condoms).

The dispute is confusing and in many ways unecessary.

We need a reality check: as the work of the AIDS foundation ACET (which I started in 1988) has found, the realities on the ground tend to impose their own solutions. Rhetoric and political posturing disappears when you are confronted by the magnitude of the disaster in countries with very few resources and health budgets of maybe only a couple of dollars per person a year.

Take for example the plight of Africa where at least 10% of the population in vast rural areas is already infected. Those that promote condoms as (virtually) the only way to halt spread don't seem to have worked out the logistical and economic challenge of applying a condom-dominated message across an entire low-income region.

The world AIDS budget is insufficient to supply every sexually active adult in Africa with as many condoms as they may need to protect every sexual encounter. Such a policy also assumes perfect distribution channels to villages which may be almost entirely cut off from Western-style supplies, and even date-checking of condom packets which deteriorate in tropical heat.

In any case, such an approach is deeply insulting to many in Africa since it ignores religious and other cultural values which in many places give honour to those who abstain before marriage and are faithful within it. There have been (totally false) widespread rumours that condom-dominated programmes are a front for secret Western attempts to stop babies being born in Africa. But these rumours have influenced many, and have come about because of mistrust of "imperialistic" wealthy nations.

And then there is the sensitive issue of youth. Even if one were to say that a condom-dominated message is the only right one for adults, and older teenagers, how about younger ones?

Is it right with a class of 11 year old girls to only talk about condoms, without raising the possibility that they might have an option to say no to sexual activity at such an age?

In practice, the pro-condom campaigners, and pro-abstinence activists tend to share common ground when tackling HIV education and prevention amongst those at such a young stage in life.

At the other extreme, most pro-abstinence activists also recognise that adults are determined to take a risk that could end their lives should be told about all the ways that such a risk can be reduced, including how to get hold of what they need eg condoms.

And between these two extremes, you will find the vast majority of HIV prevention programmes in Africa and Asia, looking to co-operate in doing all they can to educated people about risks, enabling them to take their decisions about how to stay healthy, in a culturally sensitive way, encouraging every avenue to save lives, whether condom use, refraining from risky sexual activity, not sharing needles and so on. And when it comes to avoiding sexual risk, as the World Health Organisation has always pointed out, there are two options: abstaining from penetrative sexual activity if the person could be infected (recognising you may never know), or being in a faithful relationship where both are known to be uninfected, and are both continuing to take every step to avoid becoming so.

We need every approach: sexual health clinics have a vital role to play in helping reduce other infections and an important co-factor for HIV spread; schools have a central task in informing young people about all health risks; parents have perhaps the greatest opportunity of all with young people growing up; the media, government, churches and other faith-based or community-based organisations likewise all have roles to play. Detached teams can target particular at-risk groups and so on.

This is not a time for disputes over how to put out the forest fire. We need everyone to pull together.

Unfortunately many people on every side of the debate tend to try to produce statistics to back their case. The trouble is that much of the science of prevention has been very weak. It is almost impossible to separate two different groups so that the only variable is your own programme. In almost all cases there are many other factors which could be operating to explain outcome differences. That is why so many of the studies show apparently conflicting results.

Rigorous studies are very hard to do and data that exists needs to be looked at very carefully.

However one thing is clear: advertisers have for years persuaded companies to spend huge amounts of money by proving that messages can change behaviour. Prevention programmes are an extension of the same process. They work.

We can debate about which approaches are most cost-effective, sustainable or culturally appropriate but as we have seen, when all parts of a community pull together, AIDS can be beaten.






Thursday December 1, 2005
The Guardian


Europe, led by the UK, last night signalled a major split with the United States over curbing the Aids pandemic in a statement that tacitly urged African governments not to heed the abstinence-focused agenda of the Bush administration.

The statement, released for World Aids Day today, emphasises the fundamental importance of condoms, sex education and access to reproductive health services. "We are profoundly concerned about the resurgence of partial or incomplete messages on HIV prevention which are not grounded in evidence and have limited effectiveness," it says.


While the US is not named, there is widespread anxiety over the effect of its pro-abstinence agenda in countries such as Uganda, where statements by Janet Museveni, the president's wife, and alleged problems with supply have led to a serious shortage of condoms.

The US has pledged $15bn (?8.6bn) over five years to fight the disease, most of which is channelled through the President's Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar). Pepfar grants come with conditions, however - two thirds of the money has to go to pro-abstinence programmes, and it is not available to any organisations with clinics that offer abortion services or even counselling. The US is also opposed to the provision of needles and syringes to drug users on the grounds that it could be construed as encouraging their habit.

But the statement from 22 EU member states, released at a meeting under the UK presidency in London yesterday, calls on developing world governments to use every prevention tool, from condoms to clean needles to sexual health clinics, in a bid to slow down ">Google Desktop Search: Europeans reject abstinence message in split with US on Aids: "Thursday December 1, 2005
The Guardian


Europe, led by the UK, last night signalled a major split with the United States over curbing the Aids pandemic in a statement that tacitly urged African governments not to heed the abstinence-focused agenda of the Bush administration.

The statement, released for World Aids Day today, emphasises the fundamental importance of condoms, sex education and access to reproductive health services. 'We are profoundly concerned about the resurgence of partial or incomplete messages on HIV prevention which are not grounded in evidence and have limited effectiveness,' it says.


While the US is not named, there is widespread anxiety over the effect of its pro-abstinence agenda in countries such as Uganda, where statements by Janet Museveni, the president's wife, and alleged problems with supply have led to a serious shortage of condoms.

The US has pledged $15bn (?8.6bn) over five years to fight the disease, most of which is channelled through the President's Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar). Pepfar grants come with conditions, however - two thirds of the money has to go to pro-abstinence programmes, and it is not available to any organisations with clinics that offer abortion services or even counselling. The US is also opposed to the provision of needles and syringes to drug users on the grounds that it could be construed as encouraging their habit.

But the statement from 22 EU member states, released at a meeting under the UK presidency in London yesterday, calls on developing world governments to use every prevention tool, from condoms to clean needles to sexual health clinics, in a bid to slow down "

Who is the world's most influential business thinker alive today? Thinkers 50 2005 ranking

Friend sent me an e-mail today - seems I have been ranked number 17 in the world in answer to the question, "Who is the most influential business thinker alive today?". In the last ranking (2003) I came number 46 - rather a surpise. And even more so to be ranked where I am today. An article describing the process is below. Maybe the fact that my www.globalchange.com site has now been seen by 9 million different visitors, half of whom are managers, has helped a little.

All business rankings have their own characteristics as every business school knows, and at the end of the day, the final adjustments by the team of judges will carry some subjective judgments.

Here is an explanation in the Times

Porter thinks his way to the top;Profile;Michael E. Porter;The Most Influe ntial Management Gurus;Thinkers;Thinkers 50

1 December 2005
The Times

The death of Peter Drucker means that there is a new king of management thinking, write Des Dearlove and Stuart Crainer.

THE most influential living management guru is Michael E. Porter, head of Harvard Business School's Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, according to the rankings of The Thinkers 50 2005.

The Thinkers 50 ranking is based on the votes of 1,200 business people, consultants, academics, MBA students and visitors to the project's website.

Nonetheless, Professor Porter only just made it to the top. Had the ranking been compiled a few weeks earlier, the title would have gone to Peter Drucker for the third successive year. But the father of modern management died on November 11 at the age of 95.

Professor Porter's ascension is no surprise. After the new economy meltdown, strategy is fashionable again. More of a surprise is a massive surge of support for Bill Gates. Once regarded as the business equivalent of a James Bond villain, Gates's elevation to the No 2 slot suggests that he has successfully reinvented himself through a judicious combination of vacating the Microsoft hot-seat and billion-dollar philanthropic giving.

Also benefiting from a generosity of spirit is another strategy guru, Professor C.

K. Prahalad, of the University of Michigan, whose book The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid challenges conventional thinking about the world's poor. He rises an impressive nine places to No 3. Professor Prahalad is one of several Indian-born management gurus to make the 2005 ranking. These include the CEO coach Ram Charan (ranked 24), Professor Vijay Govindarajan, of Tuck Business School (30), and Harvard's rising star Professor Rakesh Khurana (33). As yet no Chinese guru has emerged.

Business gurudom is a man's world, with only four women in the top 50. Insead's Professor Renee Mauborgne is the highest placed at 15, followed by Harvard's Professor Rosabeth Moss Kanter at 19, Dr Lynda Gratton, of the London Business School (34), and the No Logo author Naomi Klein (46). The anti-management message of Dilbert rises from 27th to 12th place in the guise of the cartoonist Scott Adams. However, despite a strong showing early on, there is no place in this year's ranking for the ultimate management fashion victim David Brent.

THE TOP 50 BUSINESS BRAINS:

1. Michael Porter (2)* - Harvard strategy specialist

2. Bill Gates (20) - Founder of Microsoft

3. C. K. Prahalad (12) - (left) LBS strategy man

4. Tom Peters (3) - Leadership consultant

5. Jack Welch (8) - GE's ex-CEO and celebrity

6. Jim Collins (10) - Author of Good to Great

7. Philip Kotler (6) - Kellogg's marketing guru

8. Henry Mintzberg (7) - Promotes Managers not MBAs

9. Kjell Nordstrom & Jonas Ridderstrale (21) - Funky Business exponents

10. Charles Handy (5) - British portfolio worker

11. Richard Branson (34) - Entrepreneur and Virgin flyer

12. Scott Adams (27) - creator of Dilbert (left)

13. Thomas Stewart (37) - Intellectual Capital author

14. Gary Hamel (4)- Strategy consultant

15. Chan Kim & Renee Mauborgne (31) - Blue Ocean Strategy duo

16. Kenichi Ohmae (19) - Japanese strategy master

17. Patrick Dixon (46) - Futurist and change guru

18. Stephen Covey (16) - Knows The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People

19. Rosabeth Moss Kanter (9) - Harvard's change manager

20. Edward De Bono (35) - Lateral thinker and author

21. Clayton Christensen (22) - Harvard's new-tech guru

22. Robert Kaplan & David Norton (15) - Balanced scorecard creators

23. Peter Senge (14) - Learning organisation inventor

24. Ram Charan (-) - Coach to the CEOs

25. Fons Trompenaars (50) - Intercultural management man

26. Russ Ackoff (-) - Specialist of systems thinking

27. Warren Bennis (13) - Humanist leadership guru

28. Chris Argyris (18) - Action and learning guru

29. Michael Dell (33) - Dell Computer's founder

30. Vijay Govindarajan (-) - Tuck's strategy innovator

31. Malcolm Gladwell (-) - Blink and Tipping Point guru 32. Manfred Kets De Vries (43) - Psychoanalytic economist

33. Rakesh Khurana (-) - Harvard labour market guru

34. Lynda Gratton (41) - LBS people and strategy guru

35. Alan Greenspan (42) - Head of US Federal Reserve

36. Edgar Schein (17) - MIT organisational psychologist

37. Ricardo Semler (36) - Radical CEO of Semco

38. Don Peppers (48) - Customer relationship man

39. Paul Krugman (40) - Economist and columnist

40. Jeff Bezos (39) - Amazon's main man

41. Andy Grove (26) - One of the Intel founders

42. Daniel Goleman (29) - Emotional intelligence inventor

43. Leif Edvinsson (-) - Professor of intellectual capital

44. James Champy (25) - Advocate of re-engineering

45. Rob Goffee & Gareth Jones (-) - Authentic leaders

46. Naomi Klein (30) (left) - No Logo author

47. Geert Hofstede (47) - Cultural expert

48. Larry Bossidy (-) - Chair of Honeywell

49. Costas Markides (-) - LBS strategy professor

50. Geoffrey Moore (38) - Hi-tech marketing man

* 2003 ranking in brackets

(c) Times Newspapers Ltd, 2005

Another chemical explosion in China -

An explosion at a chemical plant in southwest China killed one worker and forced thousands of people to evacuate their homes, Agence France-Presse reported.

The explosion happened yesterday at Yingte chemical plant at a town near Chongqing, AFP said. A female worker died and more than 10,000 residents were evacuated.

An initial explosion went off near barrels of benzene, sparking a second one which created a yellow cloud. Officials ordered people to stop using water from taps and started gathering water and air samples.

A previous explosion on November 13th at a chemical plant in the northeast of the country spilled nitrobenzene into the Songhua River, leading to reports of contamination of the drinking water of Harbin, a city of 3 million.

These kinds of accidents are to be expected in a vast country, growing rapidly, populated by millions on low incomes who are struggling to survive economically, and for whom short cuts may bring promise of higher productivity and wages.

Accidents can happen in any country and any industry and it is easy for smaller nations to point the finger, when the main reason they have fewer accidents is the relative size of their industries - together witht the fact that they have had the benefit of relative wealth for some decades.

It is hard for the government when accidents happen because the lines of authority may be long, information may not always be available and when announcements are made, they may not always be believed by citizens who suspect local officials are playing down the situation. The result can be rumour and panic.

One way to deal with this problem would be to allow greater freedom in the media to investigate and criticise. A free media might be more trusted at such times - for example over whether local drinking water is safe. However, freedom in the media may bring other challenges, making it easier for organised protest movements to develop, perhaps leading to destabilisation. These are the dilemmas facing government leaders as they seek to lead the country along the delicate path of rapid growth, job creation, digital revolution, internet access and mobile telephone on the one hand, and secure, stable party rule on the other.

Human cloning pioneer confesses to breaking ethical code

Woo Suk Hwang, of Seoul National University, has confirmed that two junior researchers in his laboratory had donated their eggs for his groundbreaking experiments in human cloning.
"I am very sorry that I have to tell the public words that are too shameful and horrible," Professor Hwang said at a press conference in Seoul. He also said he would step down as head of the World Stem Cell Hub, an international research network based in Seoul that also has laboratories in San Francisco and London.

Professor Hwang's team cloned human embryos and extracted stem cells from them.
They went on to clone patient-specific embryos and stem cells this year. Professor Hwang also cloned the first dog, Snuppy, announced this year.

Cloning raises a number of significant ethical issues, of which this is just one.

In the meantime the rational is disappearing for human cloning as a source of stem cells to fight disease, as scientists learn more about the potential of adult stem cells.