China oil consumption - and global warming

Interesting fact: If China develops to the same level as South Korea (GDP per head), it could consume as much oil per day as 60% of the whole world at 2005 levels.

Expect the Chinese government to invest great efforts not only in securing their own oil supplies by buying significant stakes in oil companies around the world, but also to invest in alternative energy sources, especially coal.

BBC NEWS | Business | Pension age 'should rise to 67'

We are rapidly learning more about why people get old, and ways we can interfere with that process. When you add in all the progress we are seeing with adult stem cells in repairing tissues, and other medical advances, it is clear that we are going to see further extensions of life-expectancy.

That is why the proposal to increase retirement age from 65 to 67 has already been overtaken by the realities of biology. Workers who are in their 20s today have more than two additional years of life ahead of them compared to people now in their 60s when they were at the same age.

You will see government actuaries continue to upgrade their estimates of how long we will all live, every few years, and every time they do so, we can expect to see further worries about the solvency of corporate pension funds.

For more on these important issues see http://www.globalchange.com/ppt/index.htm
for presentations on ageing and the future of medicine, also http://www.globalchange.com/stemcells2.htm
for more on stem cell advances.

Future of Management - business success, marketing, leadership, change management and motivation - by Dr Patrick Dixon

I have just created a new collection of articles on management, marketing and motivation - plus more links to presentations and videos.

Man cured of HIV infection? New information

Reports in the media today of a press statement from the hospital casting some doubt on the story. They say that the first tests were for antibodies only and imply that no direct tests were made for presence of the virus, that have been found to be positive at any stage. This raises the possibility, they say, that the person never had HIV infection. Once again they say they would like to conduct more tests.

In other words, the first test(s) might have given a false postive result - which can happen.

It is interesting that the media story only broke after the person concerned had talked about taking legal action against the hospital, for the distress caused by telling him he was infected and having to live with that thought for many months before being told he was not infected.

So as I have said all along, this is a complex story, broken in an unusual way - not in a reputable medical journal - from which many of the most important facts have been missing, and may be complicated still further if it turns out that the person was paid a large sum by the newspaper that broke the story to the world.

Man cured from HIV infection?

Media continue to cover this story but the medical facts are still unclear. It will be some time perhaps before we know for certain one way or the other if he was infected in the first place or not, and whether if so he is now completely free of infection. And indeed we may not know, if he choses not to have further tests, or to keep the results confidential.

Man cured of HIV in London? Comment on recent press reports

Today has been a busy day with BBC Breakfast TV and other programmes / channels looking for comment on a story about a London man who tested positve for HIV who it is said has "cured" himself. Of course one can only comment in very general terms since so many of the facts have yet to emerge and the report was in a newspaper, not a peer-reviewed scientific research publication. I have been involved since 1987 in the fight against HIV and AIDS, and founded the international AIDS agency ACET in 1988, now a growing alliance of independent AIDS care and prevention programms in countries such as Uganda, India, Thailand, Russia and Ukraine. Over the years I have come across a number of anecdotal reports of people who appeared to be infected with HIV and then had no trace of infection, but it has not been possible to verify what has happened or recheck their results. We do know that some people have a genetic profile which gives them some protection against HIV infection.

Independent researchers will want to take a very close look at any case like this, firstly to be sure that there were no errors in the testing process, and if so, to make certain that there really is no HIV infection lurking in the background. If they are satisfied on both counts, they will try and work out what process the body has used to eliminate HIV. Antibody tests are the usual way to look for HIV infection, and measure the body's reaction to the virus. Direct tests for the virus particles themselves are more difficult and expensive, but it would be very significant if they also tested positive at first, and then negative. It is unclear from the first reports what kinds of HIV tests were positive or negative at each stage.

For more comment on this important story:

http://globalchange.com/hivcurereport.htm

China reports new bird flu outbreaks, and other countries report more cases

Bird flu continues to spread unchecked with new countries reporting cases every few days. While the risk of human to human spread remains very low unless there is a mutation, the chances of such an event are growing with every new outbreak of the disease amonst domestic birds.

China reported its seventh and eighth bird flu outbreaks in three weeks. Vietnam has ordered police and the military to help fight the disease. In Thailand, an 18-month-old boy became the 21st person to catch the H5N1 bird flu virus, but is recovering in a hospital. North Korea issued an alert restricting access to chicken farms, urging the public to help fight bird flu.

One of the new Chinese outbreaks was in Liaoning province in the north east. Premier Wen Jiabao visited Liaoning this week and warned that the disease was not under control. The outbreak killed 300 chickens in Beining village near the city of Jinzhou, the agriculture ministry said in a report on the website of the Paris-based International Organisation for Animal Health. 2.5 million birds were destroyed to contain the outbreak.

The other outbreak, in Hubei province's Jingshan County, has killed 2,500 poultry. Authorities haved destroyed more than 31,000 birds, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. The case, which reportedly occurred on November 2. China has reported no human cases.

Fujitsu Siemens - and use of robots to build computers

I visited Fujitsu Siemens computer factory near Munich yesterday and was interested to see the very high levels of automation in motherboard assembly with large numbers of robots.

This followed a presentation to 2,000 of their clients earlier in the day on the future of new technology and management.

The need is growing for instant response to requests from European cusomters for custom-built machines, and that means the computers cannot be built in a country like China.

At the conference exhibition I learned that every LCD computer screen in a building can be read up to 100 metres away, if you have the right equipment. It is possible to tune in to each computer and read capture anything on the screen, with major consequences for computer security, privacy, confidentiality and leakage of sensitive business data. Of course there are easier ways to do it. using bugs of various kinds or viruses, and most security breaches are caused by employees inside, not people using clever technology a few streets away. There is a solution to reading at a distance which is to screen the computer and display using the principles of a faraday cage and these kind of solutions were being demonstrated.

Rioting in France - an expression of tribalism

We should not be shocked at recent riots in France. These kind of events could occur in most countries, in any situation where there are minorities of people who feel frustrated or oppressed.

Tribalism is the most powerful social force in the world today - and at its extreme is seen as terrorism.

Expect significant shifts in the political landscape in France over the next 2-3 years as a result of these events, with greater sensitivity to minority issues.

Financial Times feature on future trends now available for viewing online

pdf file can be downloaded and viewed of last week's feature I wrote on future issues to watch.

The Science of Ageing - Why actuarial forecasts for life expectancy are incorrect - for AIG by Dr Patrick Dixon

It is increasingly clear that actuarial forecasts for life expectancy are flawed. Here is a presentation made to AIG fund managers explaining some of the rapid progress being made in our understanding of ageing.

Conference lectures and keynote speeches by Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist speaches

Many new presentations have been uploaded and some videos - for example, slides for the following:

Conference lectures and keynote speeches by Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist speaches: "The Future of Car Recycling and Vehicle Disposal 10th anniversary client event for ARN on this rapidly growing industry. Impact of new European regulations on disposal of 9 million vehicles a year. How the Netherlands will continue to lead the way with advanced shredder technology, with competition from Central Europe as well as China - already taking 50% of all UK recycled plastic bottles.
The Future of Air Travel, Air Freight and Tourism - for Executive Board of Virgin Atlantic looking at a wide range of issues that are likely to shape airlines, business and personal travel and related expenditure. What will be the shape of airlines in future? How will airlines adapt to market pressures in a deregulated world which is increasingly dominated by short distance budget operators?
Integrating the Supply Chain - Client event for IBS on the future of logistics, manufacturing, wholesale and retail supply chain management. Impact of RFID technology with major savings in every aspect of supply chain operations, including stock reduction and theft control.
The Future of Distribution: postal services, couriers,and other logistics issues - for Swedish Post (Posten)
Futurewise - Futurepeople: Future of Management and Motivation - Keynote for IBEC on aligning people with business strategy in a rapidly changing world where strategy itself is often overtaken by events. Trends for HR professionals to watch out for. Connecting with passion to get the best out of teams.
The Future of Insurance, Pensions, Fund Management, Health and Life - Internal event for senior team members of Allianz looking at opportunities and challenges from such trends as new technology, demographic shifts, emerging markets and lifestyle choices. What will happen to life expectancy and the latest on ageing.
The Fut"

World loses control of Bird Flu - facts, pictures, truth about avian influenza virus risks

Bird Flu - spread, facts, pictures, truth about avian influenza virus risks

Global human pandemic of bird flu is now only a matter of time according to the World Health Organisation. What will be the economic and personal impact when bird flu virus mutates?

David Nabarro Bird Flu chief at the UN / WHO, declared in October 2005 that a human pandemic of bird flu can no longer be prevented, even though the first human to human case has yet to be recorded.

This WHO prediction is based on the fact that the world has lost control of bird flu amongst migrating wild birds which are rapidly spreading the disease to chickens and other domestic birds, with cases in many nations. Every time a human catches the infection from close contact with such a bird there is a small risk that the virus will mutate - if the person is already infected with ordinary human flu.

The UK has declared bird flu as public health enemey number 1. The government has given a commitment to try and vaccinate the entire population of the country against the new human variant once one emerges, even though spread of such a virus could occur months before vaccinations are manufactured and given.

Read full article

Feature in Financial Times by Dr Patrick Dixon on tribalism and ageing

Your company may have a reputation for brilliant leadership, outstanding innovation, clever branding and effective change management, but the business could fail if the world changes and you are unprepared.

Many debates about the future are about timing, such as the uptake of technology. But the future is also about emotion. Reactions to events such as bird flu are often more important than the events themselves.

Skype - The whole world can talk for free.

Skype - The whole world can talk for free.

135 million people have already downloaded Skype software which allows free net calls. You can also call landlines and mobiles in every nation for a fraction of the usual rates.

In our home we have a phone which plugs direct into the router - and works on the same principle. From

http://www.kinitron.co.uk

This technology also allows corporations to create virtual offices and switchboards at almost zero cost.