Future of your Business, Family and Wider World by Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist Speaker, Keynotes on Growth Strategies and Leadership, Lecture Slides, Articles and Videos from Conferences - 15 million unique visitors to MAIN Futurist site (articles / keynotes / videos) - link on right to www.globalchange.com
November 06, 2005
Financial Times feature on future trends now available for viewing online
pdf file can be downloaded and viewed of last week's feature I wrote on future issues to watch.
November 04, 2005
The Science of Ageing - Why actuarial forecasts for life expectancy are incorrect - for AIG by Dr Patrick Dixon
It is increasingly clear that actuarial forecasts for life expectancy are flawed. Here is a presentation made to AIG fund managers explaining some of the rapid progress being made in our understanding of ageing.
November 02, 2005
Conference lectures and keynote speeches by Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist speaches
Many new presentations have been uploaded and some videos - for example, slides for the following:
Conference lectures and keynote speeches by Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist speaches: "The Future of Car Recycling and Vehicle Disposal 10th anniversary client event for ARN on this rapidly growing industry. Impact of new European regulations on disposal of 9 million vehicles a year. How the Netherlands will continue to lead the way with advanced shredder technology, with competition from Central Europe as well as China - already taking 50% of all UK recycled plastic bottles.
The Future of Air Travel, Air Freight and Tourism - for Executive Board of Virgin Atlantic looking at a wide range of issues that are likely to shape airlines, business and personal travel and related expenditure. What will be the shape of airlines in future? How will airlines adapt to market pressures in a deregulated world which is increasingly dominated by short distance budget operators?
Integrating the Supply Chain - Client event for IBS on the future of logistics, manufacturing, wholesale and retail supply chain management. Impact of RFID technology with major savings in every aspect of supply chain operations, including stock reduction and theft control.
The Future of Distribution: postal services, couriers,and other logistics issues - for Swedish Post (Posten)
Futurewise - Futurepeople: Future of Management and Motivation - Keynote for IBEC on aligning people with business strategy in a rapidly changing world where strategy itself is often overtaken by events. Trends for HR professionals to watch out for. Connecting with passion to get the best out of teams.
The Future of Insurance, Pensions, Fund Management, Health and Life - Internal event for senior team members of Allianz looking at opportunities and challenges from such trends as new technology, demographic shifts, emerging markets and lifestyle choices. What will happen to life expectancy and the latest on ageing.
The Fut"
Conference lectures and keynote speeches by Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist speaches: "The Future of Car Recycling and Vehicle Disposal 10th anniversary client event for ARN on this rapidly growing industry. Impact of new European regulations on disposal of 9 million vehicles a year. How the Netherlands will continue to lead the way with advanced shredder technology, with competition from Central Europe as well as China - already taking 50% of all UK recycled plastic bottles.
The Future of Air Travel, Air Freight and Tourism - for Executive Board of Virgin Atlantic looking at a wide range of issues that are likely to shape airlines, business and personal travel and related expenditure. What will be the shape of airlines in future? How will airlines adapt to market pressures in a deregulated world which is increasingly dominated by short distance budget operators?
Integrating the Supply Chain - Client event for IBS on the future of logistics, manufacturing, wholesale and retail supply chain management. Impact of RFID technology with major savings in every aspect of supply chain operations, including stock reduction and theft control.
The Future of Distribution: postal services, couriers,and other logistics issues - for Swedish Post (Posten)
Futurewise - Futurepeople: Future of Management and Motivation - Keynote for IBEC on aligning people with business strategy in a rapidly changing world where strategy itself is often overtaken by events. Trends for HR professionals to watch out for. Connecting with passion to get the best out of teams.
The Future of Insurance, Pensions, Fund Management, Health and Life - Internal event for senior team members of Allianz looking at opportunities and challenges from such trends as new technology, demographic shifts, emerging markets and lifestyle choices. What will happen to life expectancy and the latest on ageing.
The Fut"
October 31, 2005
World loses control of Bird Flu - facts, pictures, truth about avian influenza virus risks
Bird Flu - spread, facts, pictures, truth about avian influenza virus risks
Global human pandemic of bird flu is now only a matter of time according to the World Health Organisation. What will be the economic and personal impact when bird flu virus mutates?
David Nabarro Bird Flu chief at the UN / WHO, declared in October 2005 that a human pandemic of bird flu can no longer be prevented, even though the first human to human case has yet to be recorded.
This WHO prediction is based on the fact that the world has lost control of bird flu amongst migrating wild birds which are rapidly spreading the disease to chickens and other domestic birds, with cases in many nations. Every time a human catches the infection from close contact with such a bird there is a small risk that the virus will mutate - if the person is already infected with ordinary human flu.
The UK has declared bird flu as public health enemey number 1. The government has given a commitment to try and vaccinate the entire population of the country against the new human variant once one emerges, even though spread of such a virus could occur months before vaccinations are manufactured and given.
Read full article
Global human pandemic of bird flu is now only a matter of time according to the World Health Organisation. What will be the economic and personal impact when bird flu virus mutates?
David Nabarro Bird Flu chief at the UN / WHO, declared in October 2005 that a human pandemic of bird flu can no longer be prevented, even though the first human to human case has yet to be recorded.
This WHO prediction is based on the fact that the world has lost control of bird flu amongst migrating wild birds which are rapidly spreading the disease to chickens and other domestic birds, with cases in many nations. Every time a human catches the infection from close contact with such a bird there is a small risk that the virus will mutate - if the person is already infected with ordinary human flu.
The UK has declared bird flu as public health enemey number 1. The government has given a commitment to try and vaccinate the entire population of the country against the new human variant once one emerges, even though spread of such a virus could occur months before vaccinations are manufactured and given.
Read full article
Feature in Financial Times by Dr Patrick Dixon on tribalism and ageing
Your company may have a reputation for brilliant leadership, outstanding innovation, clever branding and effective change management, but the business could fail if the world changes and you are unprepared.
Many debates about the future are about timing, such as the uptake of technology. But the future is also about emotion. Reactions to events such as bird flu are often more important than the events themselves.
Many debates about the future are about timing, such as the uptake of technology. But the future is also about emotion. Reactions to events such as bird flu are often more important than the events themselves.
July 30, 2005
Skype - The whole world can talk for free.
Skype - The whole world can talk for free.
135 million people have already downloaded Skype software which allows free net calls. You can also call landlines and mobiles in every nation for a fraction of the usual rates.
In our home we have a phone which plugs direct into the router - and works on the same principle. From
http://www.kinitron.co.uk
This technology also allows corporations to create virtual offices and switchboards at almost zero cost.
135 million people have already downloaded Skype software which allows free net calls. You can also call landlines and mobiles in every nation for a fraction of the usual rates.
In our home we have a phone which plugs direct into the router - and works on the same principle. From
http://www.kinitron.co.uk
This technology also allows corporations to create virtual offices and switchboards at almost zero cost.
July 29, 2005
Future of Fund Mangement and Related Issues - Dr Patrick Dixon for ICBI 2005
Future of Fund Mangement and Related Issues - Dr Patrick Dixon for ICBI 2005
Interesting how few fund managers believe their actively managed retail equity funds are worth investing in.
Most of the fund managers at the ICBI conference had little confidence in their own funds - according to the straw poll in my own plenary.
Best value: tracker funds
Interesting how few fund managers believe their actively managed retail equity funds are worth investing in.
Most of the fund managers at the ICBI conference had little confidence in their own funds - according to the straw poll in my own plenary.
Best value: tracker funds
July 28, 2005
Terrorism
Terrorism
2 out of 4 of the would-be suicide bombers last week in London were African. Unless we sort out the growing inequality between rich and poor, especially the poverty crisis in Africa, we will see new protest movements emerge that will make Al Qaeda look like a mere insect bite.
450 million children in Africa will become adults by 2020, most of which exist today on per capita incomes of a single dollar a day or less.
2 out of 4 of the would-be suicide bombers last week in London were African. Unless we sort out the growing inequality between rich and poor, especially the poverty crisis in Africa, we will see new protest movements emerge that will make Al Qaeda look like a mere insect bite.
450 million children in Africa will become adults by 2020, most of which exist today on per capita incomes of a single dollar a day or less.
July 24, 2005
Terrorism
Terrorism
The real challenge in dealing with the recent London bombing attacks is how to deal with the underlying issues.
We learned that over 30 years in responding to the IRA terrorist threat.
During the Second World War it was rare to find soldiers willing to go into combat on suicide missions, although individual acts of supreme bravery were common.
We need to understand why young men (mainly) are so willing to give up their lives in this way, and what they hope to achieve for the world they leave behind.
Of course those reasons are complex, vary from person to person, but there are common elements which include intense feelings of injustice, and contempt for what is seen as a degenerate and evil society.
The other thing we learned from the Irish troubles was that the greatest weapon of a terrorist is fear - and that fear is usually irrational.
By the end of the Second World War around 25% of all London homes were damaged or destroyed, yet life went on.
Even if there ten deaths from terrorism in London every week, the statistical chances of being killed in this way would be less than being killed on the roads as a part of normal day to day life.
Every nation affected by terrorism needs a sense of perspective, which is the greatest protection against terrorism of all. We cannot allow bombers the victory of bringing the whole of London to a halt.
The real challenge in dealing with the recent London bombing attacks is how to deal with the underlying issues.
We learned that over 30 years in responding to the IRA terrorist threat.
During the Second World War it was rare to find soldiers willing to go into combat on suicide missions, although individual acts of supreme bravery were common.
We need to understand why young men (mainly) are so willing to give up their lives in this way, and what they hope to achieve for the world they leave behind.
Of course those reasons are complex, vary from person to person, but there are common elements which include intense feelings of injustice, and contempt for what is seen as a degenerate and evil society.
The other thing we learned from the Irish troubles was that the greatest weapon of a terrorist is fear - and that fear is usually irrational.
By the end of the Second World War around 25% of all London homes were damaged or destroyed, yet life went on.
Even if there ten deaths from terrorism in London every week, the statistical chances of being killed in this way would be less than being killed on the roads as a part of normal day to day life.
Every nation affected by terrorism needs a sense of perspective, which is the greatest protection against terrorism of all. We cannot allow bombers the victory of bringing the whole of London to a halt.
July 21, 2005
Future of Fund Mangement and Related Issues - Dr Patrick Dixon for ICBI 2005
Future of Fund Mangement and Related Issues - Dr Patrick Dixon for ICBI 2005
Here is a strange thing. In my experience it is rare to find fund managers who are confident they can outperform tracker funds, or who actually have a significant proportion of their own wealth tied up in their own actively managed retail equity funds, or who would recommend such retail investment products to their own family or friends.
Quite the opposite, as a straw poll identified during my keynote for ICBI. Most fund managers seem to think that their products offer poor value for money - with charges of maybe more than 2% each year on gains of maybe 4% in a good year and less than 1% in bad.
A misselling scandal waiting to happen?
Here is a strange thing. In my experience it is rare to find fund managers who are confident they can outperform tracker funds, or who actually have a significant proportion of their own wealth tied up in their own actively managed retail equity funds, or who would recommend such retail investment products to their own family or friends.
Quite the opposite, as a straw poll identified during my keynote for ICBI. Most fund managers seem to think that their products offer poor value for money - with charges of maybe more than 2% each year on gains of maybe 4% in a good year and less than 1% in bad.
A misselling scandal waiting to happen?
July 20, 2005
ACET International Alliance - ASSET - AIDS prevention and care
ACET International Alliance - ASSET - AIDS prevention and care
See news on new countries covered by the ACET International Alliance family - a foundation which my wife and I started back in 1988 and is now active in many parts of the world, saving lives and caring for those affected by HIV.
See news on new countries covered by the ACET International Alliance family - a foundation which my wife and I started back in 1988 and is now active in many parts of the world, saving lives and caring for those affected by HIV.
July 08, 2005
BBC NEWS | UK | London bombs killed 'at least 50'
BBC NEWS | UK | London bombs killed 'at least 50'
All terrorism is an extreme expression of tribalism, which is the most powerful force in the world today. More powerful than the combined military of US, China and Russa.
Unless we sort out the growing inequality in Africa we will find new protest movements grow up which will make Al Qaida look like a mosquito bite.
450 million children are growing up in households across Africa that survive on $2 a head or less each day. Many see Western lifestyles on TV in village bars and towns... and they see their own.
This issue is perhaps the greatest moral challenge to our world today.
All terrorism is an extreme expression of tribalism, which is the most powerful force in the world today. More powerful than the combined military of US, China and Russa.
Unless we sort out the growing inequality in Africa we will find new protest movements grow up which will make Al Qaida look like a mosquito bite.
450 million children are growing up in households across Africa that survive on $2 a head or less each day. Many see Western lifestyles on TV in village bars and towns... and they see their own.
This issue is perhaps the greatest moral challenge to our world today.
June 26, 2005
Climate Change: Instant Expert | New Scientist
Climate Change: Instant Expert | New Scientist
I did a BBC Radio 5 Live interview on Global Warming last night. Interesting how the debate has moved on. Even if you take the most sceptical position, which is that maybe there is only a 5% risk that there is any link between human activity and global warming, that is still a very significant possibility.
Most of us insure our homes and other parts of our lives against much lower risks than 5%. However we don't have an insurance policy against global warming.
And most scientists think the risk is higher than 5% in any case.
That's why governments are right to be taking action now.
We cannot wait until the case is proven beyond all doubt.
One small step every family and business can take is to become carbon neutral in the longer term, by buying a tree in a new wood or forest to offset every 0.8 of a ton of carbon we use.
That's the equivalent of £20 on the cost of a transatlantic return flight or £160 on the annual costs of driving 12,000 miles.
An alternative to planting trees is to fund projects that reduce carbon emissions in places like India - for example a single 100 watt low-energy bulb will save over 10 years the equivalent in carbon of an entire mature tree being cut down (according to Future Forest). That is when you take into account the inneficiency of generating electricity and power losses on distribution.
I did a BBC Radio 5 Live interview on Global Warming last night. Interesting how the debate has moved on. Even if you take the most sceptical position, which is that maybe there is only a 5% risk that there is any link between human activity and global warming, that is still a very significant possibility.
Most of us insure our homes and other parts of our lives against much lower risks than 5%. However we don't have an insurance policy against global warming.
And most scientists think the risk is higher than 5% in any case.
That's why governments are right to be taking action now.
We cannot wait until the case is proven beyond all doubt.
One small step every family and business can take is to become carbon neutral in the longer term, by buying a tree in a new wood or forest to offset every 0.8 of a ton of carbon we use.
That's the equivalent of £20 on the cost of a transatlantic return flight or £160 on the annual costs of driving 12,000 miles.
An alternative to planting trees is to fund projects that reduce carbon emissions in places like India - for example a single 100 watt low-energy bulb will save over 10 years the equivalent in carbon of an entire mature tree being cut down (according to Future Forest). That is when you take into account the inneficiency of generating electricity and power losses on distribution.
June 24, 2005
ARK - Absolute Return for Kids
ARK - Absolute Return for Kids
Interesting sign of the times - new organisation backed by money from hedge funds and others. Every day I am hearing about major new philanthropic initiatives being started by people who have made a lot of money in business.
Part of the same trend that has seen over 500,000 people in Britain buy white wrist bands in just 6 weeks, in support of the "Make Poverty History" campaign.
Interesting sign of the times - new organisation backed by money from hedge funds and others. Every day I am hearing about major new philanthropic initiatives being started by people who have made a lot of money in business.
Part of the same trend that has seen over 500,000 people in Britain buy white wrist bands in just 6 weeks, in support of the "Make Poverty History" campaign.
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