Your company may have a reputation for brilliant leadership, outstanding innovation, clever branding and effective change management, but the business could fail if the world changes and you are unprepared.
Many debates about the future are about timing, such as the uptake of technology. But the future is also about emotion. Reactions to events such as bird flu are often more important than the events themselves.
Future of your Business, Family and Wider World by Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist Speaker, Keynotes on Growth Strategies and Leadership, Lecture Slides, Articles and Videos from Conferences - 15 million unique visitors to MAIN Futurist site (articles / keynotes / videos) - link on right to www.globalchange.com
October 31, 2005
July 30, 2005
Skype - The whole world can talk for free.
Skype - The whole world can talk for free.
135 million people have already downloaded Skype software which allows free net calls. You can also call landlines and mobiles in every nation for a fraction of the usual rates.
In our home we have a phone which plugs direct into the router - and works on the same principle. From
http://www.kinitron.co.uk
This technology also allows corporations to create virtual offices and switchboards at almost zero cost.
135 million people have already downloaded Skype software which allows free net calls. You can also call landlines and mobiles in every nation for a fraction of the usual rates.
In our home we have a phone which plugs direct into the router - and works on the same principle. From
http://www.kinitron.co.uk
This technology also allows corporations to create virtual offices and switchboards at almost zero cost.
July 29, 2005
Future of Fund Mangement and Related Issues - Dr Patrick Dixon for ICBI 2005
Future of Fund Mangement and Related Issues - Dr Patrick Dixon for ICBI 2005
Interesting how few fund managers believe their actively managed retail equity funds are worth investing in.
Most of the fund managers at the ICBI conference had little confidence in their own funds - according to the straw poll in my own plenary.
Best value: tracker funds
Interesting how few fund managers believe their actively managed retail equity funds are worth investing in.
Most of the fund managers at the ICBI conference had little confidence in their own funds - according to the straw poll in my own plenary.
Best value: tracker funds
July 28, 2005
Terrorism
Terrorism
2 out of 4 of the would-be suicide bombers last week in London were African. Unless we sort out the growing inequality between rich and poor, especially the poverty crisis in Africa, we will see new protest movements emerge that will make Al Qaeda look like a mere insect bite.
450 million children in Africa will become adults by 2020, most of which exist today on per capita incomes of a single dollar a day or less.
2 out of 4 of the would-be suicide bombers last week in London were African. Unless we sort out the growing inequality between rich and poor, especially the poverty crisis in Africa, we will see new protest movements emerge that will make Al Qaeda look like a mere insect bite.
450 million children in Africa will become adults by 2020, most of which exist today on per capita incomes of a single dollar a day or less.
July 24, 2005
Terrorism
Terrorism
The real challenge in dealing with the recent London bombing attacks is how to deal with the underlying issues.
We learned that over 30 years in responding to the IRA terrorist threat.
During the Second World War it was rare to find soldiers willing to go into combat on suicide missions, although individual acts of supreme bravery were common.
We need to understand why young men (mainly) are so willing to give up their lives in this way, and what they hope to achieve for the world they leave behind.
Of course those reasons are complex, vary from person to person, but there are common elements which include intense feelings of injustice, and contempt for what is seen as a degenerate and evil society.
The other thing we learned from the Irish troubles was that the greatest weapon of a terrorist is fear - and that fear is usually irrational.
By the end of the Second World War around 25% of all London homes were damaged or destroyed, yet life went on.
Even if there ten deaths from terrorism in London every week, the statistical chances of being killed in this way would be less than being killed on the roads as a part of normal day to day life.
Every nation affected by terrorism needs a sense of perspective, which is the greatest protection against terrorism of all. We cannot allow bombers the victory of bringing the whole of London to a halt.
The real challenge in dealing with the recent London bombing attacks is how to deal with the underlying issues.
We learned that over 30 years in responding to the IRA terrorist threat.
During the Second World War it was rare to find soldiers willing to go into combat on suicide missions, although individual acts of supreme bravery were common.
We need to understand why young men (mainly) are so willing to give up their lives in this way, and what they hope to achieve for the world they leave behind.
Of course those reasons are complex, vary from person to person, but there are common elements which include intense feelings of injustice, and contempt for what is seen as a degenerate and evil society.
The other thing we learned from the Irish troubles was that the greatest weapon of a terrorist is fear - and that fear is usually irrational.
By the end of the Second World War around 25% of all London homes were damaged or destroyed, yet life went on.
Even if there ten deaths from terrorism in London every week, the statistical chances of being killed in this way would be less than being killed on the roads as a part of normal day to day life.
Every nation affected by terrorism needs a sense of perspective, which is the greatest protection against terrorism of all. We cannot allow bombers the victory of bringing the whole of London to a halt.
July 21, 2005
Future of Fund Mangement and Related Issues - Dr Patrick Dixon for ICBI 2005
Future of Fund Mangement and Related Issues - Dr Patrick Dixon for ICBI 2005
Here is a strange thing. In my experience it is rare to find fund managers who are confident they can outperform tracker funds, or who actually have a significant proportion of their own wealth tied up in their own actively managed retail equity funds, or who would recommend such retail investment products to their own family or friends.
Quite the opposite, as a straw poll identified during my keynote for ICBI. Most fund managers seem to think that their products offer poor value for money - with charges of maybe more than 2% each year on gains of maybe 4% in a good year and less than 1% in bad.
A misselling scandal waiting to happen?
Here is a strange thing. In my experience it is rare to find fund managers who are confident they can outperform tracker funds, or who actually have a significant proportion of their own wealth tied up in their own actively managed retail equity funds, or who would recommend such retail investment products to their own family or friends.
Quite the opposite, as a straw poll identified during my keynote for ICBI. Most fund managers seem to think that their products offer poor value for money - with charges of maybe more than 2% each year on gains of maybe 4% in a good year and less than 1% in bad.
A misselling scandal waiting to happen?
July 20, 2005
ACET International Alliance - ASSET - AIDS prevention and care
ACET International Alliance - ASSET - AIDS prevention and care
See news on new countries covered by the ACET International Alliance family - a foundation which my wife and I started back in 1988 and is now active in many parts of the world, saving lives and caring for those affected by HIV.
See news on new countries covered by the ACET International Alliance family - a foundation which my wife and I started back in 1988 and is now active in many parts of the world, saving lives and caring for those affected by HIV.
July 08, 2005
BBC NEWS | UK | London bombs killed 'at least 50'
BBC NEWS | UK | London bombs killed 'at least 50'
All terrorism is an extreme expression of tribalism, which is the most powerful force in the world today. More powerful than the combined military of US, China and Russa.
Unless we sort out the growing inequality in Africa we will find new protest movements grow up which will make Al Qaida look like a mosquito bite.
450 million children are growing up in households across Africa that survive on $2 a head or less each day. Many see Western lifestyles on TV in village bars and towns... and they see their own.
This issue is perhaps the greatest moral challenge to our world today.
All terrorism is an extreme expression of tribalism, which is the most powerful force in the world today. More powerful than the combined military of US, China and Russa.
Unless we sort out the growing inequality in Africa we will find new protest movements grow up which will make Al Qaida look like a mosquito bite.
450 million children are growing up in households across Africa that survive on $2 a head or less each day. Many see Western lifestyles on TV in village bars and towns... and they see their own.
This issue is perhaps the greatest moral challenge to our world today.
June 26, 2005
Climate Change: Instant Expert | New Scientist
Climate Change: Instant Expert | New Scientist
I did a BBC Radio 5 Live interview on Global Warming last night. Interesting how the debate has moved on. Even if you take the most sceptical position, which is that maybe there is only a 5% risk that there is any link between human activity and global warming, that is still a very significant possibility.
Most of us insure our homes and other parts of our lives against much lower risks than 5%. However we don't have an insurance policy against global warming.
And most scientists think the risk is higher than 5% in any case.
That's why governments are right to be taking action now.
We cannot wait until the case is proven beyond all doubt.
One small step every family and business can take is to become carbon neutral in the longer term, by buying a tree in a new wood or forest to offset every 0.8 of a ton of carbon we use.
That's the equivalent of £20 on the cost of a transatlantic return flight or £160 on the annual costs of driving 12,000 miles.
An alternative to planting trees is to fund projects that reduce carbon emissions in places like India - for example a single 100 watt low-energy bulb will save over 10 years the equivalent in carbon of an entire mature tree being cut down (according to Future Forest). That is when you take into account the inneficiency of generating electricity and power losses on distribution.
I did a BBC Radio 5 Live interview on Global Warming last night. Interesting how the debate has moved on. Even if you take the most sceptical position, which is that maybe there is only a 5% risk that there is any link between human activity and global warming, that is still a very significant possibility.
Most of us insure our homes and other parts of our lives against much lower risks than 5%. However we don't have an insurance policy against global warming.
And most scientists think the risk is higher than 5% in any case.
That's why governments are right to be taking action now.
We cannot wait until the case is proven beyond all doubt.
One small step every family and business can take is to become carbon neutral in the longer term, by buying a tree in a new wood or forest to offset every 0.8 of a ton of carbon we use.
That's the equivalent of £20 on the cost of a transatlantic return flight or £160 on the annual costs of driving 12,000 miles.
An alternative to planting trees is to fund projects that reduce carbon emissions in places like India - for example a single 100 watt low-energy bulb will save over 10 years the equivalent in carbon of an entire mature tree being cut down (according to Future Forest). That is when you take into account the inneficiency of generating electricity and power losses on distribution.
June 24, 2005
ARK - Absolute Return for Kids
ARK - Absolute Return for Kids
Interesting sign of the times - new organisation backed by money from hedge funds and others. Every day I am hearing about major new philanthropic initiatives being started by people who have made a lot of money in business.
Part of the same trend that has seen over 500,000 people in Britain buy white wrist bands in just 6 weeks, in support of the "Make Poverty History" campaign.
Interesting sign of the times - new organisation backed by money from hedge funds and others. Every day I am hearing about major new philanthropic initiatives being started by people who have made a lot of money in business.
Part of the same trend that has seen over 500,000 people in Britain buy white wrist bands in just 6 weeks, in support of the "Make Poverty History" campaign.
June 05, 2005
June 01, 2005
Small Business Insurance - why small companies can be wiped out in a week. The truth about small business risks
Small Business Insurance - why small companies can be wiped out in a week. The truth about small business risks: "Small Business Insurance
The truth about insurance against small business risks - why your small business could disappear in a week - huge risks may not be covered by your insurance policy
Small businesses spend hundreds of millions a year on insurance yet policies may not fully cover some of their most serious risks. Risk management is a vital part of running a small business, yet neglected by most small business owners who say they haven't got the time.
The trouble is that when disaster strikes, you may need more than a small business insurance payout to keep going. And disaster comes around often.
Small business owners run on a tight margin and don't have spare resources to tackle major issues, so are very vulnerable to business disasters and other negative events. Small business insurance may cover obvious costs but not all the hidden consequencies.
Take backup of computer data for example: you assume that everything works find until a hard disk crashes. When you come to restore data you find either the system was not backed up recently enough, and you have lost vital e-mails and other data, or that the backup files are corrupt. This kind of event is far commoner than you may imagine. Every computer your business owns is a separate risk of sudden hardware failure or attack by a virus, and small businesses are especially vulnerable because they don't have the backup of a professional IT department, and are often dependent on a varied collection of computers, and staff who don't fully understand how to use them.
Does your small business insurance cover you for destruction of your business following staff errors in backing up or even for the loss of your own personal organiser and all your diary for the next 6 weeks? For lost ....."
Read on...
Small Business Insurance - why small companies can be wiped out in a week. The truth about small business risks
The truth about insurance against small business risks - why your small business could disappear in a week - huge risks may not be covered by your insurance policy
Small businesses spend hundreds of millions a year on insurance yet policies may not fully cover some of their most serious risks. Risk management is a vital part of running a small business, yet neglected by most small business owners who say they haven't got the time.
The trouble is that when disaster strikes, you may need more than a small business insurance payout to keep going. And disaster comes around often.
Small business owners run on a tight margin and don't have spare resources to tackle major issues, so are very vulnerable to business disasters and other negative events. Small business insurance may cover obvious costs but not all the hidden consequencies.
Take backup of computer data for example: you assume that everything works find until a hard disk crashes. When you come to restore data you find either the system was not backed up recently enough, and you have lost vital e-mails and other data, or that the backup files are corrupt. This kind of event is far commoner than you may imagine. Every computer your business owns is a separate risk of sudden hardware failure or attack by a virus, and small businesses are especially vulnerable because they don't have the backup of a professional IT department, and are often dependent on a varied collection of computers, and staff who don't fully understand how to use them.
Does your small business insurance cover you for destruction of your business following staff errors in backing up or even for the loss of your own personal organiser and all your diary for the next 6 weeks? For lost ....."
Read on...
Small Business Insurance - why small companies can be wiped out in a week. The truth about small business risks
Global Change Ltd - website statistics
Global Change Ltd - website statistics
The www.globalchange.com traffic is heavier than ever: up to 88 million words a day requested.
8.5 million unique visitors to our pages
(5.5 million from July 2003 - March 05)
Site visitors peak at over 22,500 different people and 110,000 pages a day - At peak times an average visitor requests 4.5 pages of around 800 words each, over 7 minutes - a total of more than 2,600 hours onsite in 24 hours, not including offline reading time, during which our server can deliver an estimated 88 million words including more than 2,200 book chapters
13 million pages viewed in 12 months from 1 April 2004 to 30 March 2005
Around 500,000 unique visitors in a busy month. Up to 600,000 html pages viewed a week. Of around 320 million global search requests a day in March 2005 (source: WordTrack) , up to 22,500 a day landed up at our site - so we think on busy days around one in 14,500 of all 320 million search requests around the world produces a visit to our pages - or more like one in 30,000 at quieter times . Around 65% of our traffic is from the US (compared to 42.4% of all net traffic). In March 2005 there were around 110 million individuals in the US who used search engines (Wordtracker figures), of which we estimate around 325,000 different US citizens visited our pages. One person in every 360 American users of search engines visits us in a busy month, and we estimate around 3% of 175 million US online citizens have visited our site at least once since we launched in 1996 - the figure is far less for the rest of the world.
The www.globalchange.com traffic is heavier than ever: up to 88 million words a day requested.
8.5 million unique visitors to our pages
(5.5 million from July 2003 - March 05)
Site visitors peak at over 22,500 different people and 110,000 pages a day - At peak times an average visitor requests 4.5 pages of around 800 words each, over 7 minutes - a total of more than 2,600 hours onsite in 24 hours, not including offline reading time, during which our server can deliver an estimated 88 million words including more than 2,200 book chapters
13 million pages viewed in 12 months from 1 April 2004 to 30 March 2005
Around 500,000 unique visitors in a busy month. Up to 600,000 html pages viewed a week. Of around 320 million global search requests a day in March 2005 (source: WordTrack) , up to 22,500 a day landed up at our site - so we think on busy days around one in 14,500 of all 320 million search requests around the world produces a visit to our pages - or more like one in 30,000 at quieter times . Around 65% of our traffic is from the US (compared to 42.4% of all net traffic). In March 2005 there were around 110 million individuals in the US who used search engines (Wordtracker figures), of which we estimate around 325,000 different US citizens visited our pages. One person in every 360 American users of search engines visits us in a busy month, and we estimate around 3% of 175 million US online citizens have visited our site at least once since we launched in 1996 - the figure is far less for the rest of the world.
April 22, 2005
Euthanasia - update of previous article on mercy killing and assisted suicide
Euthanasia: "As a care of the dying specialist in the past I have often been asked to kill people - which is euthanasia, mercy killing or assisted suicide.
Sometimes relatives have taken me on one side and told me they cannot bear it any more: 'Isn't there something you can do to end it all?' More often requests for euthanasia have come from those who are ill. I remember visiting a man with lung cancer. He asked his wife to leave the room. As she closed the door he leaned over and grabbed my arm. 'I want to die', he said. 'Please can you give me something.' He felt a burden on his wife and wanted euthanasia for himself. People are often more afraid of the process of dying than of death itself.
The Voluntary Euthanasia Society wants to allow people 'with a severe illness from which no relief is known' to be lawfully killed if they wish. One US euthanasia campaigner has suggested people could be killed on the basis of their previous instructions, even if they now want to live. This is in the case of someone with Alzheimer disease where the person is no longer distressed about memory loss while others are.
Where do you start or stop euthanasia? How advanced must cancer be for euthanasia to be appropriate? How can you be sure? Doctors are often wrong about diagnosis or prognosis. What about other illnesses, dementia, or handicap? Who decides about euthanasia? On what basis do we judge? Are those in pain receiving proper medication? Has every appropriate treatment option been explored?
What is euthanasia? Mercy killing is the literal definition of the word euthanasia.
The hospice movement started in this country because people were dying badly, often in pain. In thirty years over 200 hospices have opened and 240 hospitals now have specialist nurses. Almost 100,000 people each year are visited by home care teams, over half of all those dyin"
Sometimes relatives have taken me on one side and told me they cannot bear it any more: 'Isn't there something you can do to end it all?' More often requests for euthanasia have come from those who are ill. I remember visiting a man with lung cancer. He asked his wife to leave the room. As she closed the door he leaned over and grabbed my arm. 'I want to die', he said. 'Please can you give me something.' He felt a burden on his wife and wanted euthanasia for himself. People are often more afraid of the process of dying than of death itself.
The Voluntary Euthanasia Society wants to allow people 'with a severe illness from which no relief is known' to be lawfully killed if they wish. One US euthanasia campaigner has suggested people could be killed on the basis of their previous instructions, even if they now want to live. This is in the case of someone with Alzheimer disease where the person is no longer distressed about memory loss while others are.
Where do you start or stop euthanasia? How advanced must cancer be for euthanasia to be appropriate? How can you be sure? Doctors are often wrong about diagnosis or prognosis. What about other illnesses, dementia, or handicap? Who decides about euthanasia? On what basis do we judge? Are those in pain receiving proper medication? Has every appropriate treatment option been explored?
What is euthanasia? Mercy killing is the literal definition of the word euthanasia.
The hospice movement started in this country because people were dying badly, often in pain. In thirty years over 200 hospices have opened and 240 hospitals now have specialist nurses. Almost 100,000 people each year are visited by home care teams, over half of all those dyin"
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