10 trends that will dominate our future - all relatively slowly changing but with huge impact

Our future will be shaped by hundreds of trends which are changing relatively slowly and predictably. Here are ten of the most significant:

1) Fall of all technology and connectivity costs

40 year trend, which will continue for at least another 40 years, because of new discoveries, innovation, economies of scale and human need.

Take solar cells for example, which will continue to plunge in price.  For some communities they are already the cheapest source of electric power, and by 2030 they will make most other ways of power generation look really last century.

2) Universal access to mobile web

There are already more mobile SIM cards in the world than human beings and in most nations of the world. Most web access and e-commerce is now via a mobile device.

And by 2030, trillions of items will be joined up online, sharing information in the greatest and most explosive phase of digital expansion.

3) 1 billion children alive in the world

Never again in human history will so many children be growing up at the same time.  All will see your lifestyle in advertising or on TV or the web.  All will aspire to middle class wealth, education, health care.  Global population will peak at around 11 billion in 2060.

Those 1 billion children will all be adults in less than 18 years, and most will have children of their own in 25 years. Their views and lifestyles will dominate our planet for the next 50-80 years.

4) 85% of humankind living in emerging markets in 10 years

That’s almost everyone.  So if you live in a developed nation, think some really radical thoughts about life in 2030.  The only markets worth investing in for many industries, will be emerging markets.  

The collective voice, opinions and lifestyle choices of those living in emerging markets will one day completely dominate our entire world.  America and Europe will decline as global players.

5) Growth of middle class consumers in emerging markets

Over a billion new middle class consumers will be created in emerging markets during the next 30 years, as a result of better education and economic growth.

Countries like China and India will be transformed by growth of their own domestic markets – becoming much less dependent on exports of goods or services to developed nations like America or Japan.

6) Huge growth in life expectancy in most nations

The life expectancy of every person living in a city like London is getting longer by an average of one year in every four years.  That’s without the miracles of medical technology, pharma and health care that we can expect in the next 50 years.  Life expectancy is growing even faster in many of the poorest nations.

By 2040 we will know all the secrets of non-ageing animals – of which there are many types – and will be finding new ways to slow down ageing in wealthy humans.

7) Growth in global trade and corporate giants

Every year, trade between nations continues to grow rapidly, as our world continues to become more joined up as a single economic community.  Expect huge consolidation and mergers in manufacturing, distribution and retail.  Over 70% of all retail spending will be in less than 10 companies in many nations by 2040.  

In 2050 there will still be only 2-3 major airline manufacturers, only 2-3 global mobile or computer operating systems, only 10 mega-sized pharma companies, less than 5 major groups of car manufacturers.

8) Increased automation – factories, cars, offices, homes

The Internet of Things, Cloud Computing and Big Data will all accelerate global automation of every aspect of human existence.  This is an irresistible trend that has been accelerating for over 100 years.  

Despite this, expect several billion more jobs to be created, mainly in service industries, as people look for ever more creative and personal ways to improve quality of life.

9) Tribalism feeding radical extremists and terrorism

Tribalism is the most powerful force on earth today.  Every family is a tribe. Every community is a tribe. Every brand forms a tribe.  Every large company is a tribe of tribes.

As a reaction to globalization and threats to local cultures, languages and ways of life, expect rapid growth of tribalism, localism, activism and terrorism.  These forces will be fed by social media, and will undermine democracies and dictatorships.

10) Search for purpose, sustainability and spiritual meaning

Most people in the world say that they have spiritual beliefs which influence how they think, feel and live.  As communities become wealthier, expect sharper focus on purpose, meaning, making a difference and spirituality. As part of this, expect intense focus on long term sustainability for our world.

* Buy The Future of Almost Everything - new book by Patrick Dixon - ‪tinyurl.com/o296kqa 

5 Steps to Instantly Future-Proof Your Business

Here is a five minute guide to future-proof any business.

1) Bring in outsiders to challenge your world view

The greatest risk to any business is institutional blindness.
When too many bankers spend too much time with bankers, the result is a sub-prime crisis. Too many generals playing too many war games with too many other generals in the same nation, and the result can be disaster.

So seek out advice from experts, consultants, innovators – people who think very differently to you and others in your company.

2) Listen to your customers – but don’t believe them

Always take what your customers tell you seriously. Fix their problems. Make life easier. But don’t believe them when it comes to predicting the future.

Get to know your customers well, with deep insights into how they think and feel, and then try to imagine how they may behave in a very different kind of future world. One of the best ways to find those insights is to pretend to be a customer in your own business as a “mystery shopper”. Every senior manager should do that at least once a month.

3) Read widely – and be curious about all you meet

I wrote The Future of Almost Everything as a one-stop guide to the future of every industry, region and market. Many of the insights came from reading everything I can get my hands on – unfamiliar magazines in airports, blogs by influential people, newspapers like the Financial Times, and other key publications like the Economist.

The key is to challenge your own views on the future, rather than just absorb the forecasts made by others.

One of the fastest ways to stay ahead of change is to be constantly curious about the lives of those you meet. For example, when you arrive in a new city, talk to your taxi driver who will likely be a very reliable guide to what is really going on, if the local economy is picking up, who is spending what and where.

4) Review your strategies every year

The world is changing faster than you can hold a board meeting, which means that you need to have more than one strategy. Bring your team together regularly to think again. Develop contingencies to stay ahead of constant change. What are you going to do if….

Focus on major long-term trends, which change relatively slowly and you already understand most of your future. Things like demographics, growing life expectancy, the relentless fall in price of most technologies, rapid pace of globalization, rise of emerging markets and so on.

The rest will be driven by Wild Cards – low probability, high impact events – but there are a huge number of them, and in a hyper-connected world, their combined impact can be awesome. Remember that in every risk or challenge there is a new business opportunity.

5) Agile leadership teams

And finally, prepare for rapid change, by developing more agile teams. That means simplifying decision-making, giving more power to local teams to innovate, diversify and respond to events rapidly. Recruit and promote leaders who cope well with ambiguity and uncertainty, who enjoy taking initiative, have courage and are great collaborators.

Agility is so much easier when you have completed steps 1-4 above. When you have a dynamic view of your future, and have mapped out different possible directions depending on what happens around you.

* My new book  is published by Profile Books at the end of August.  Pre-order today:  http://tinyurl.com/o296kqa

The Future of Almost Everything